BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bull Phase Intact

• RES 4: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance       
• RES 3: 117.949 20-day EMA  
• RES 2: 117.850 High Sep 19 
• RES 1: 117.810 High Sep 22   
• PRICE: 117.760 @ 05:56 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 117.601 0.764 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The contract has breached support at 117.690 and 117.630, the Sep 2 and Aug 25 lows respectively. Clearance of these levels reinstates a bearish theme. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.

The TYZ5 range has been 112-21+ to 112-24 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-22+, unchanged from the previous close. 

• No cash market today.
• 10-Year Yields could not extend below 4.00% and have bounced as the Fed could not meet the markets very dovish expectations. The first buy-zone is now back towards the 4.20% area where I suspect demand should return initially. A sustained break through 4.00% is needed for the focus to then turn towards the 3.80% area.
• MNI BRIEF: Fed's Musalem Sees Limited Room For More Rate Cuts. The Federal Reserve was justified in cutting interest rates last week but still-elevated inflation and a higher neutral rate mean the central bank might not have room to reduce borrowing cuts much further, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Monday.
• Robin Brooks on X: “Global yield curves are steepening, but the truth is that they're still inordinately flat in the big picture. The US yield curve is a case in point. 5y5y forward Treasury yield used to be a full 3 percentage points above 5y yield. We're going back to that.”
• "DIMON SAYS TRUMP ADMIN HAS NOT ATTACKED THE DEFICIT YET, ,SAYS HARD FOR FED TO CUT IF INFLATION DOESN'T GO AWAY : CNBC.” - BBG
• Data/Events:  Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, Current Account Balance, S&P Global US PMI’s, Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and key short-term resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1795 @ 06:01 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.1726/1672 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 1.1672. the 50-day EMA.