SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Structure Intact

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8  
• RES 1: 0.8674 High Aug 25 / 28 and a key near-term resistance 
• PRICE: 0.8660 @ 06:39 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP continues to trade below its most recent highs. A bear threat is present and attention is on support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Jul 28 and highlight potential for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, resistance to watch is 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. A breach would instead signal a stronger reversal.

• RES 4: 107.245 High Jul 24  
• RES 3: 107.185 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 107.145 50-day EMA and a key area of resistance
• RES 1: 107.125 High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 107.050 @ 06:13 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 107.035/106.970 Low Aug 26 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish, and recent short-term gains appear corrective. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 107.145. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 107.185, the Aug 1 high. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 106.970, the Aug 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3544/3595 High Aug 22 / 14
• PRICE: 1.3523 @ 06:28 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair continues to trade above support. The Aug 22 price pattern - a bullish engulfing candle - signals the end of a recent corrective phase. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support is 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.