SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme
* RES 4: 107.235 High Oct 22 * RES 3: 107.175 High Oct 24 * RES 2: 107.067 50-day EMA * RES 1: 107.0...
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Support Intact
- RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6812.25 High Sep 9 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6768.50 @ 07:23 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 6621.98 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
- SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2
A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading above support at the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6621.98, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. Clearance of this level would undermine a bull theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high.
STIR: Friday’s Flash PMIs To Determine If Implied ECB Cuts Are Brought Forward
- ECB-dated OIS continue to price 19bps of easing through September 2026. Friday’s flash PMIs will be important in determining whether implied cuts can be brought forward.
- Speakers at the IMF/World Bank meetings last week generally stressed that the deposit rate was in a “good place”, but for some Governing Council members, the door clearly remains open to another cut if justified by the data.
- We don’t expect much new from today’s scheduled appearances (Lane, Escriva, Lagarde and Kocher). They all spoke several times last week, so their stance is very well understood.
- Euribor futures are little changed through the blues. Despite a phase of dovish repricing on heightened US/China trade tensions towards the end of last week, the Euribor implied terminal rate (indicated by the U6 contract) has returned to just below the 1.90% handle (1.88% at typing). We still think this terminal rate may struggle to push meaningfully below 1.90% in the absence of fresh data catalysts.
- Eurozone Q2 debt/deficit data is due this morning, but is unlikely to be a market mover.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Oct-25 | 1.924 | -0.3 |
| Dec-25 | 1.892 | -3.5 |
| Feb-26 | 1.868 | -6.0 |
| Mar-26 | 1.805 | -12.2 |
| Apr-26 | 1.788 | -13.9 |
| Jun-26 | 1.756 | -17.1 |
| Jul-26 | 1.750 | -17.7 |
| Sep-26 | 1.739 | -18.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
WTI TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance / High Jul 30
- RES 1: $61.76 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $57.60 @ 07:05 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: $56.35 - Low Oct 20
- SUP 2: $54.89 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $53.05 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on $54.89 next, the May 5 low, where a break would open $54.10, the Apr 9 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $61.76, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 26 high.
