SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Outlook

Oil prices are higher today supported by US industry data showing a large crude drawdown and the upcoming August 8 deadline for a truce in Ukraine otherwise purchasers of Russian fuel will be hit by extra US tariffs. Crude is down over 5% in the first three trading days of the month. WTI is 0.6% higher at $65.54/bbl following a high of $65.63. Brent is up 0.6% to $66.90/bbl after reaching $66.94. The USD index is down 0.1%. 

• Markets believe that even if there isn’t a US-Russia agreement, that it will be very difficult to reduce Russian fuel shipments materially. US special envoy Witkoff is scheduled to be in Russia today for meetings.
• Daily Russian product exports declined around 4% in July from June to their lowest in nine months based on Vortexa data compiled by Bloomberg. Refining rates are down and summer has driven an increase in domestic consumption. Russia has stopped gasoline exports for now.
• Bloomberg reported that US oil inventories fell a more-than-expected 4.2mn last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline stocks fell 900k while distillate rose 1.6mn. The official EIA data is out later today and will be monitored for signs of weakening demand.
• Later the Fed’s Cook, Collins and Daly speak. Euro area June retail sales, June German factory orders and French Q2 employment print.