SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bear Trend Resumes
Sep-12 05:39
- RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and 23 (cont)
- RES 3: 107.240 High Aug 4
- RES 2: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
- PRICE: 107.015 @ 06:18 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 107.010 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 106.974 1.236 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.948 1.382 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.928 1.500 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and Thursday’s sell-off confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a bear trigger. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards 106.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 107.145, the Sep 11 high.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-13 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14-Aug | 0700 | Q2 | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 18-Aug | 1530 | --- | DMO likely to publish FQ3 consultation agenda |
| 20-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Consumer inflation report / PPI |
| 21-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Aug | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 21-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 22-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 22-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Retail Sales |
| 23-Aug | 1725 | --- | BOE Bailey at Jackson Hole |
| 26-Aug | 0001 | Aug | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 26-Aug | - | --- | DMO to hold FQ3 consultations with investors / GEMMs |
| 27-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Aug | 0730 | --- | DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Jul | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-13 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 13-Aug | 0700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13-Aug | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 1000 | EU | IP / GDP 2nd Est / Employment |
| 18-Aug | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 19-Aug | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 21-Aug | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 21-Aug | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 22-Aug | 0700 | DE | GDP (f) |
| 22-Aug | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 22-Aug | 1000 | EU | Negotiated Wage Growth |
CHINA: Country Wrap: Plans Afoot to Subsidize Consumer Loans
Aug-13 05:17
- China plans to subsidize interest payments on eligible personal consumer loans from Sept. 2025 to Aug. 2026, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance. Subsidy applies to loans under 50,000 yuan for consumption, and designated big-ticket items over 50,000 yuan — including autos, education, and healthcare. China’s consumer loan interest subsidy program is expected to support a recovery in lending, especially for operating loans in the consumer services sector, while benefiting major banks and enhancing their market share, according to analysts from brokerages including China Merchants Securities. (source BBG)
- resident Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have expressed their opposition to unilateralism and protectionism, and pledged to promote the greater development of bilateral ties. In a phone conversation between the two heads of state on Tuesday, Xi told Lula that China is ready to work with Brazil to set an example of unity and self-reliance among major countries of the Global South, and to jointly build a more just world and a more sustainable planet. (source China Daily)
- China and Hong Kong markets are also higher. The CSI 300 last around +0.90%. The HSI is up around +1.90%, with the tech sub index +2.35%.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1350 Per USD; Estimate 7.1768
- Ten year government bond yields are modestly lower with the 10-year at 1.72%
