SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4
- RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
- RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 107.015 @ 06:02 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. A fresh cycle low on Sep 25, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 106.907 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 106.900 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 09-Sep | 0001 | Aug | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 09-Sep | 1615 | --- | BOE Breeden Moderates BIS Fireside Chat |
| 12-Sep | 0700 | Jul | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 12-Sep | 0930 | Aug | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 16-Sep | 0700 | Jul/Aug | Labour Market Survey |
| 17-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Consumer inflation report |
| 18-Sep | 1200 | --- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 19-Sep | 0001 | Sep | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 19-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 23-Sep | 0930 | Sep | S&P Global Flash PMIs |
| 23-Sep | 1100 | Sep | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24-Sep | 0001 | Aug | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 25-Sep | 1100 | Sep | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Sep | 0930 | Aug | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
| 30-Sep | 0001 | Sep | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Sep | 0700 | Q2 | GDP 2nd Est / Quarterly Current Account Balance |
| 01-Oct | 0930 | Sep | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 02-Oct | 0930 | Sep | Decision Maker Panel data |
GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Low
- RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
- RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
- RES 2: 1.3595 High Aug 14 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3555 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 1.3499 @ 06:20 BST Sep 6
- SUP 1: 1.3417/3333 Low Sep 4 / 3
- SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
GBPUSD is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains following the recovery from last Wednesday’s low. The move higher appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3315 next, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg. On the upside, clearance of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to reinstate a bull theme.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 08-Sep | 0700 | DE | Trade Balance / Industrial Production |
| 09-Sep | 0745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 10-Sep | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 10-Sep | 0900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 11-Sep | 1315 | EU | ECB Rate Decision |
| 11-Sep | 1345 | EU | ECB Press Conference |
| 11-Sep | 1515 | EU | ECB Lagarde Presents Rate Decision on ECB Podcast |
| 12-Sep | 0700 | DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 12-Sep | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 12-Sep | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 12-Sep | 1000 | EU | Labour Market Quarterly Statistics |
| 15-Sep | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 15-Sep | 1910 | EU | ECB Lagarde at Institut Montaigne Paris |
| 16-Sep | 0900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Sep | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 16-Sep | 1000 | EU | EZ Industrial Production |
