SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact For Now
- RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 107.235 High Oct 22
- RES 1: 107.108/175 50-day EMA / High Oct 24
- PRICE: 107.055 @ 06:07 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 107.010/014 Low Oct 30 / 76.4% of Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 2: 106.995 Low Oct 8
- SUP 3: 106.965 Low Oct 6
- SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support
A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. For now, the current bear cycle that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 107.014 (pierced), the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg, and the next important support. A break would strengthen a bear theme. Initial resistance is at 107.108, the 50-day EMA.
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WTI TECHS: (X5) Resistance Intact For Now
- RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $62.49 @ 07:17 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures have pulled back from their recent gains. The contract has recently breached $65.43, the Sep 2 high and this has potentially improved the S/T condition for bulls. However, the next key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a clear reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $3900.0 Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3875.5 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3857.1 @ 07:24 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29
- SUP 2: $3682.7 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3628.1 - Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: $3548.7 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3646.3, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Threat
- RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $66.12 @ 07:09 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $64.20 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures traded higher last week, however, the contract has pulled back from its recent peak. A resumption of gains would suggest scope for a continuation of a bullish corrective cycle and expose key resistance at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. The medium-term outlook remains bearish and sights are on key support and the bear trigger at $64.50, the Jun 30 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme.
