BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance
- RES 2: 118.770 High Oct 22
- RES 1: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
- PRICE: 118.180 @ 06:00 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 118.020 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 118.043 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.900 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle
Bobl futures continue to trade closer to the current bear cycle lows. The move down that started Oct 17 is - for now - considered corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. However, support around the 50-day EMA, at 118.162, has been breached. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 117.900, the Oct 10 low. Initial resistance is at 118.360, the Oct 28 high.
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BUNDS: US Governemnt is in Shutdown
- Bund is steady with {us} US Treasuries going into the European session as the US Government shuts down, and as expected Month End provided no afternoon bids Yesterday, since these were small to a non event for the EU, US, and UK.
- Given the US Debacle, now there will be plenty of Questions regarding exact timing on future Data releases, but for right now, Today's Data is at the forefront.
- For the German Bund, the Technicals are unchanged, support is still at the 128.26 gap initially. Below the latter, opens to 127.88 and 127.61.
- Resistance is still eyed at 128.82 and more importantly that 129.13 gap.
- Today's Manufacturing PMIs will be final readings for France, Germany, EU, UK and US and wouldn't expect too much of a big market movers, EU Prelim CPI is also due. But the main focus is now clearly on the US ADP and ISM Mfg Data.
- SUPPLY: UK £1.6bn 10yr Linker (won't impact Gilt), Germany €5bn Bund 10yr (equates to 42.2k Bund) should weigh into the contract into the bidding deadline.
- SPEAKERS: It's another busy day for Speakers, but since CB's message is clearly on Data dependency, don't expect too much of a new rhetoric.
- Today includes, ECB Kazimir, Kocher, Simkus, Guindos, BoE Mann, Fed Barkin, Goolsbee.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Portugal HICP Decreases In September
Portugal HICP decreased to 1.9% Y/Y in September according to the Statistics Portugal flash release, out yesterday (2.5% August).
- The national-level CPI (non-HICP) decelerated to 2.39% (2.76% August), meanwhile.
- The slowdown was driven by the 'core' measure (CPI excl. unprocessed food and energy), which came in at 1.96% Y/Y (2.44% August).
- Energy CPI accelerated, meanwhile, to 0.33% Y/Y (-0.18% August). A higher Y/Y rate in the category is also expected for the Eurozone-wide print scheduled for release later today. The energy M/M reading was 0.31% in Portugal this time.
- Food saw relatively little change this time, with unprocessed food unchanged at 6.99% and processed food at 1.03% (0.81% prior).
- For reference, Portugal contributes 2.6% to the overall Eurozone HICP 2025 basket.
EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 1: 175.13 High Sep 29
- PRICE: 173.27 @ 07:13 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 172.46 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1
The trend EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s pullback appears corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key M/T resistance. The 20-day EMA has been pierced. Support to watch lies at 172.46, the 50-day EMA.
