BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance
- RES 2: 118.770 High Oct 22
- RES 1: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
- PRICE: 118.1180 @ 06:06 GMT Oct 30
- SUP 1: 118.060 LOw Oct 29
- SUP 2: 118.043 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.900 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle
Bobl futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday. Price remains closer to the current bear cycle lows. The move down that started Oct 17 is - for now - considered corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support around the 50-day EMA, at 118.162, has been breached. This signals scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at 118.360, the Oct 28 high.
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USD: Extending losses into the European session
- For the Same reason as the spike seen in Core Bonds and Gold, the Dollar is under further pressure as the US Government shutdown looms.
- The Greenback extends early losses into the European Cash open, both the US Tnotes and Bund are now testing their respective highs.
- It's a new low against the EUR, SEK, ZAR, MXN, ILS, NOK, NZD and CAD.
- Best early performer is the AUD following the expected Unchanged RBA Rate decision that brought some Hawkish Tilt, noting some concerns on a number of CPI components.
- One of the Chart to watch out for was the AUDNZD, the cross did have a brief test above 1.1400.
- Next resistance comes at 1.1448 (retracement level), followed by the big 1.1500 level.
- The 2022 high does reside at 1.1491.
GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $3900.0 Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3871.7 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3865.3 @ 07:23 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: $3717.6 - Low Sep 24
- SUP 2: $3664.1 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3579.7 - Low Sep 8
- SUP 4: $3536.0 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has started the week on a bullish note, trading to a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3646.3, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish M/T Structure
- RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $66.82 @ 07:10 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: $64.20 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures traded higher last week, however, the contract has pulled back from its recent peak. A resumption of gains would suggest scope for a continuation of a bullish corrective cycle and expose key resistance at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. The medium-term outlook appears bearish and sights are on key support and the bear trigger at $64.50, the Jun 30 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme.
