BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle
- RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance
- RES 2: 118.770 High Oct 22
- RES 1: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
- PRICE: 118.190 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 118.020 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 118.043 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.900 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact for now and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows.The move down that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. However, support around the 50-day EMA, at 118.162, has been breached. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 117.900, the Oct 10 low. Initial resistance is at 118.360, the Oct 28 high.
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BTP TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
- RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
- RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 119.97 @ Close Oct 3
- SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
- SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the most recent pullback appears to have been a correction. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the larger corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Key support to watch lies at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.
RATINGS: Slovenia Upgraded At Fitch
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch upgraded Slovenia to A+; Outlook Stable
USDJPY TECHS: Gaps Higher
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 150.44 Intraday high
- PRICE: 150.18 @ 07:02 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: 149.05 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 147.86 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 146.53 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low
- SUP 4: 145.49
USDJPY has started the week on a strong bullish note, gapping higher. Today’s rally has resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.96, the Sep 26 high and a key short-term resistance. This paves the way for a test of the key medium-term resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 22. Today’s intraday low at 149.05 is the first support.
