ECB: Worst Case Scenario Of Chinese Trade Diversion Would Reduce HICP By 0.15pp
An ECB staff blog, published today: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog2025...
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: MNI Connect Event - Atlanta Fed Bostic Outlook
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 06/30 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (40.5, 42.9)
- 06/30 1000 Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook at MNI event (no text, Q&A)
- 06/30 1030 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-15.3, -12.0)
- 06/30 1130 US Tsy $79B 13W & $71B 26W bill auctions
- 06/30 1300 Chicago Fed Goolsbee moderated discussion at Aspen Ideas Festival
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US TSY FUTURES: Net Short Setting Most Prominent On Friday
OI data points to net short setting dominating on Friday, with the most prominent positioning adjustment coming in WN futures (~$3.1mn DV01).
- Modest net long cover was seen in FV & US futures.
| 27-Jun-25 | 26-Jun-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,269,109 | 4,253,499 | +15,610 | +603,799 |
FV | 7,116,709 | 7,119,040 | -2,331 | -101,770 |
TY | 5,037,897 | 5,016,950 | +20,947 | +1,399,846 |
UXY | 2,411,409 | 2,404,834 | +6,575 | +580,670 |
US | 1,758,599 | 1,760,182 | -1,583 | -200,474 |
WN | 1,904,272 | 1,887,316 | +16,956 | +3,103,720 |
|
| Total | +56,174 | +5,385,792 |
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 114-14 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1 and key resistance
- RES 1: 112-04+ High May 2
- PRICE: 111-31 @ 11:16 BST Jun 30
- SUP 1: 111-11+/110-27 Low Jun 25 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-10+/109-28 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 6 / 11
- SUP 3: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
Treasury futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its gains. Resistance at 111-14+, the Jun 5 high and 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg, has been cleared. The break strengthens a bullish cycle. Note too that last Thursday’s gains delivered a print above 111-30, 76.4% of the May 1-22 downleg. A clear break of this level would strengthen current conditions. Initial pivot support to watch lies at 110-27, the 50-day EMA.
