AUSTRALIA DATA: Weak Productivity, Rising Compensation & ULC Above 5% y/y

AUDUSD is off its intraday low of 0.6432 to be up 0.5% to 0.6468 following Friday’s outperformance. It reached a high of 0.6481 earlier helped by US President Trump suggesting today that some trade deals could be announced this week. With the US dollar continuing to weaken (USD BBDXY index -0.4%), the G10 is broadly stronger against the greenback. 

• AUDJPY is lower in the softer risk environment. The pair is down 0.2% to 93.25 after a high of 93.59.
• AUDNZD has trended down through the session and is now -0.2% to 1.0816 after a low of 1.0814.
• AUDEUR is little changed at 0.5703 off the intraday trough of 0.5686. AUDGBP is 0.2% higher at 0.4865.
• Many Asian markets are shut today but equities are generally weaker with ASX down 0.8% and TAIEX -2.1%. The S&P e-mini is down 0.7%. Oil prices are sharply weaker with WTI -3.9% to $56.01/bbl. Copper is up 0.6% and iron ore is steady around $97/t.
• Later US services ISM/PMI data are released. The UK is closed.

Taiwan has experienced very strong inflows as signs of a thawing in the trade war resonate with investors. 

• South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$65m as of Friday, bringing the 5-day total to +$722m. 2025 to date flows are -$12,329m. The 5-day average is +$144m, the 20-day average is -$254m and the 100-day average of -$144m.
• Taiwan: Had inflows of +$1,244m as of Friday, with total inflows of +$2,144m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$17,215. The 5-day average is +$429m, the 20-day average of +$53m and the 100-day average of -$173m.
• India: Had inflows of +$20m as of the 30th, with total inflows of +$1,814m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$12,266m.  The 5-day average is +$363m, the 20-day average of +$74m and the 100-day average of -$111m.
• Indonesia: Had inflows of +$8m as of Friday, with total inflows of +$18m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$3,055m.  The 5-day average is +$4m, the 20-day average -$51m and the 100-day average -$37m
• Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$41m as of Friday, outflows totaling -$12m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,645m. The 5-day average is -$2m, the 20-day average of -$24m the 100-day average of -$19m.
• Malaysia: Recorded inflows of +$80m as of Friday, totaling +$227m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,579m. The 5-day average is +$45m, the 20-day average of -$16m and the 100-day average of -$32m.
• Philippines: Saw inflows of +$12m as of Friday, with net inflows of +$45m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$252m. The 5-day average is +$9m, the 20-day average of -$2m the 100-day average of -$4m.

The impact on headline inflation of the government’s electricity discount continued to unwind in April with the CPI rising 1.95% y/y from 1.0% y/y in March and -0.1% in February. Core remained at 2.5% y/y for the third consecutive month but well within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) 1.5-3.5% target corridor. Goldman Sachs continues to forecast BI will ease by a further 100bp by end-2025 if the rupiah will allow it. It sees a risk that rate cuts could continue to be delayed if the “IDR continues to underperform peer currencies”.

• GS said “Indonesia's headline CPI inflation increased to 2.0% yoy in April, returning to the central bank's inflation target band of 1.5-3.5% (vs. 1.0% yoy in March). Today's reading was above our and Bloomberg consensus expectations. On a seasonally adjusted, sequential basis, headline CPI slowed to 1.1% mom s.a. in April from 1.6% mom s.a. in the previous month.”
• “Housing and utilities inflation rebounded to 1.6% yoy in April (vs. -4.7% yoy in March) mainly from a normalization of electricity tariffs. This contributed 26bp towards the headline inflation in April, compared to -77bp the previous month.”
• “Core inflation, which excludes food and administered goods, was unchanged at 2.5% yoy in April as faster personal care inflation driven by high gold prices being offset by generally slower domestic goods and services inflation.”