EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C March 24, 2025
Mar-21 16:33
Germany, France, Austria, Greece and Italy are all due to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be E20.9bln in first round operations, up from E19.4bln this week.
- On Monday morning, Germany will come to the market with E2bln of the 3-month Jun 18, 2025 Bubill and E2bln of the 9-month Dec 10, 2025 Bubill.
- On Monday afternoon, France will look to sell up to a combined E8.2bln of 13/14/26/52-week BTFs: E3.0-3.4bln of the 13-week Jun 25, 2025 BTF; E0.4-0.8bln of the 14-week Jul 2, 2025 BTF; E1.8-2.2bln of the 26-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF; E1.4-1.8bln of the new 52-week Mar 25, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday morning, Austria will sell E1bln of the 4-month Jul 24, 2025 ATB and E0.75bln of the new, green 6-month Sep 25, 2025 ATB.
- On Wednesday, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Sep 26, 2025 GTB.
- Finally on Thursday, Italy will come to the market with a 6-month BOT, potentially alongside another BOT. Details will be announced on Monday.
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FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.215%(ALLOT 60.66%)
Feb-19 16:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.215%(ALLOT 60.66%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 29.82% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 11.86% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.32% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.33
FED: Pre-Minutes FOMC Communications: MNI Spectrum Shifts Hawkish (1/3)
Feb-19 16:30
Since the January meeting, FOMC participants have become more hawkish – or at least, more patient. We go through all relevant FOMC member commentary since the last meeting in our Minutes preview (PDF here).
- That’s particularly the case since the Feb 7 release of January’s employment report which among other things showed an unexpected dip in the unemployment rate to 4.0% from 4.1%.
- And while multiple doves expressed optimism that January’s strong CPI print doesn’t portend a deviation from the path to 2% or preclude rate cuts this year, they have likewise acknowledged that a near-term easing looks out of the question and that any reductions will require more evidence of disinflationary progress.
- Continued uncertainty over potential tariff/fiscal/immigration shifts under the Trump administration have been flagged by multiple participants as grounds to remain patient until the impact can be assessed.
- We have shifted the dots in our Hawk-Dove Spectrum toward the hawkish end pretty much across the board – with sentiment toward a prolonged hold seemingly building.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Feb-19 16:30
- EUR/USD: Feb21 $1.0400(E2.0bln), $1.0500-18(E1.1bln); Feb24 $1.0450(E1.1bln), $1.0460-70(E4.1bln), $1.0465-70($2.4bln); Feb25 $1.0390-00(E1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: Feb21 C$1.4500($1.2bln), C$1.4600($1.7bln)
