EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C February 17, 2025
Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM, Greece, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be E19.3bln in first round operations, down from E22.2bln this week.
- On Monday morning, Germany will sell E3bln of the new 12-month Feb 18, 2026 bubill.
- Also on Monday morning, the Netherlands will issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 2.5-month Apr 29, 2025 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the 5.5-month Jul 30, 2025 DTC.
- On Monday afternoon, France will come to the market to sell up to a combined E7.5bln of 14/17/27/49-week BTFs: E2.5-2.9bln of the new 14-week May 28, 2025 BTF, E0.1-0.5bln of the 17-week June 18, 2025 BTF, E1.7-2.1bln of the 27-week Aug 27, 2025 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 49-week Jan 28, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday, the ESM will sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Aug 21, 2025 bills.
- On Wednesday, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Aug 22, 2025 GTB.
- Also on Wednesday, Portugal will look to sell E0.75-1.00bln of the 11-month Jan 16, 2026 BT.
- Finally on Wednesday, the EU will sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month May 9, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Aug 8, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURIBOR: OI Suggests Short Setting Prevalent On Tuesday
OI data suggests short setting was once again prevalent through the Euribor greens on Tuesday. Pockets of long cover was seen in the blues.
- Euribor futures followed core EGBs lower through the course of yesterday’s session, with German yields reaching multi-month highs across the curve.
| 14/01/2025 | 13/01/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 586,469 | 571,334 | +15,135 | Whites | +55,187 |
| ERM5 | 686,259 | 649,729 | +36,530 | Reds | +17,625 |
| ERU5 | 486,106 | 483,607 | +2,499 | Greens | +6,754 |
| ERZ5 | 645,806 | 644,783 | +1,023 | Blues | -730 |
| ERH6 | 414,534 | 413,689 | +845 | ||
| ERM6 | 336,831 | 336,178 | +653 | ||
| ERU6 | 277,699 | 270,673 | +7,026 | ||
| ERZ6 | 270,786 | 261,685 | +9,101 | ||
| ERH7 | 171,544 | 169,548 | +1,996 | ||
| ERM7 | 131,571 | 129,673 | +1,898 | ||
| ERU7 | 103,993 | 103,692 | +301 | ||
| ERZ7 | 131,026 | 128,467 | +2,559 | ||
| ERH8 | 57,504 | 57,429 | +75 | ||
| ERM8 | 43,571 | 43,783 | -212 | ||
| ERU8 | 22,336 | 23,420 | -1,084 | ||
| ERZ8 | 39,687 | 39,196 | +491 |
FOREX: EURUSD Reverses Post-CPI Move, EURJPY Down 1.05%
- The US dollar has been gradually paring losses in recent trade, with the greenback assisted by equities moderately off their best levels. EURUSD stands out, having entirely reversed the post-CPI move to trade back at 1.0300. Notably, the single currency underperformance keeps EURGBP on the backfoot, edging closer back to 0.8400, while EURJPY extends session declines to over 1%. Below here for EURJPY, the focus will be on 160.00, a notable pivot for the cross, coinciding with the Monday low.
US INFLATION: Core PCE Estimates Tilt Lower After CPI Report
Some post-CPI core PCE estimates below - while not all had pre-CPI/PPI forecasts, it's pretty clear that CPI points to a slightly softer figure than seen coming into this week and certainly after PPI (pre-PPI it was around 0.20%, post-PPI it looked to be closer to 0.25%, now looks to be back to 0.20% or the high 0.10s%).
December Core PCE % M/M ests (0.11% prior):
- Wells Fargo 0.21%
- Nomura: 0.205% (had been 0.272% pre-CPI, post-PPI)
- HSBC: 0.2% (rounded)
- Cleveland Fed nowcast: 0.189% (had been 0.23% pre-PPI and pre-CPI)
- JPM 0.186%
- Morgan Stanley: 0.166%
