EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C December 8
Dec-05 15:47
Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium and Italy are due to sell bills next week. We expec...
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STIR: Closer To 5bp Of Easing Priced For Tomorrow's BoE After U.S.-Driven Move
Nov-05 15:46
Movements in the USD front end (driven by ADP data, the Treasury’s QRA and ISM services survey) have spilled over into GBP markets.
- SONIA futures now 0.75-6.5 lower, leaving SFIZ6 10.0 off October’s high.
- BoE-dated OIS now 1.5-5.0bp less dovish on the day, showing 5.5bp of easing for tomorrow, 15bp through year-end and 28bp through February.
- For tomorrow’s decision we have characterised our view as 50/50 (when it comes to a cut or a hold), which is comfortably more dovish than current market pricing.
- We would have more confidence in a cut if the Budget was not coming into view, particularly given the soft food CPI reading in the latest monthly inflation release.
- Our full preview of the decision is here.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
| Nov-25 | 3.916 | -5.4 |
| Dec-25 | 3.820 | -14.9 |
| Feb-26 | 3.691 | -27.8 |
| Mar-26 | 3.639 | -33.0 |
| Apr-26 | 3.536 | -43.4 |
| Jun-26 | 3.508 | -46.2 |
| Jul-26 | 3.448 | -52.1 |
| Sep-26 | 3.433 | -53.7 |
OPTIONS: Expiries for Nov6 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Nov-05 15:41
- EUR/USD: $1.1400(E1.5bln), $1.1450(E560mln), $1.1500(E1.6bln), $1.1525(E604mln), $1.1550(E1.8bln), $1.1600(E1.6bln), $1.1715(E1.5bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2900(Gbp2.0bln), $1.3100(Gbp1.0bln), $1.3350(Gbp770mln)
- USD/JPY: Y152.00($1.0bln), Y153.00-05($1.2bln), Y154.00-05($1.1bln), Y154.50-55($1.1bln), Y155.00($1.9bln), Y155.35($1.2bln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8800-10(E1.1bln)EUR/JPY: Y177.00-05(E561mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6480-90(A$650mln)
GILTS: First Support Holds In Futures
Nov-05 15:34
Gilts still closely tracking U.S. Tsys after the firmer-than-expected ISM services survey and prices paid sub-component extended the sell off in the former.
- Still, Tsys have now stabilised allowing gilt futures to base around previously identified initial support (lows of 93.14 vs. support at 93.15).
- Yields 2-4.5bp higher, curve holds steeper.
- 10-Year yields still haven’t managed to close the gap that came after the softer-than-expected CPI data in late October (4.478%).
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Dec-05 15:48
