EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C April 21, 2025
Apr-17 14:39
Spain, Austria, the Netherlands, France and Greece are due to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be 15.3bln in first round operations, down from E15.7bln this week.
- On Tuesday morning, Spain will sell the 3-month Jul 4, 2025 letras and the 9-month Jan 9, 2026 letras. Given the auction size was not announced today, we assume it will be announced on Monday April 21 despite it being a public holiday in some regions.
- Also on Tuesday, Austria will come to the market with E1bln of the 3-month Jul 24, 2025 ATB and E1bln of the new 6-month Oct 30, 2025 ATB.
- Additionally on Tuesday, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-1.5bln of the 2.5-month Jun 27, 2025 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the 5.5-month Sep 29, 2025 DTC.
- On Tuesday afternoon, France will look to sell 13/26/52-week BTFs, potentially alongside another BTF. We expect details to be announced tomorrow, despite it being a public holiday in some regions.
- To conclude issuance for the week on Wednesday, Greece will come to the market with E500mln of the new 26-week Apr 25, 2025 GTB.
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EQUITIES: Equity roll pace update
Mar-18 14:38
- ESA: 63%.
- NQA: 53%.
- DOW: 69%.
- VGA: 62%.
- DAX: 43%.
- FTSE: 66%.
EURIBOR: Calendar spread seller
Mar-18 14:29
ERH6/M6 sold at 4.5 in 30k.
US DATA: Industrial Production Jump Shows Hint Of Tariff Front-Running
Mar-18 14:22
Industrial production picked up strongly in February after a softer January, as a jump in manufacturing activity offset weaker utilities production.
- Overall IP rose 0.7% M/M (nearly rounding up to 0.8%) vs 0.2% expected and 0.3% in January (rev down 0.2pp), with the seasonally-adjusted index hitting an all-time high and capacity utilization reaching an 8-month high 78.2%.
- The manufacturing index rose by 0.9%, the quickest pace in 12 months, to hit a 28-month high (the release highlighted an 8.5% M/M rise in motor vehicles/parts production as driving the increase). That's vs 0.3% expected, and came with an upward revision to January (0.1% from -0.1%).
- Utilities came in on the soft side at -2.5% M/M but that's after a 6.1% rise in January (which was attributed to heating during an unusually cold month), and activity in the segment is still up 8.7% Y/Y.
- Momentum in both overall industry and manufacturing has picked up noticeably: while the Y/Y rates were up 1.4% / 0.7% respectively, the 3M/3M annualized rates came in at 5.2% / 2.8% respectively (both the fastest in 33 months).
- As such the upside breakout in production since late 2024 continues, and corresponds with ISM manufacturing returning to above-50 territory for the first two months of 2025.
- That's the good news. Whether this is the result of front-running tariffs is a major question, though, particularly given that the auto sector - one of the most vulnerable to Canada/Mexico trade disruptions - was such a major driver in the month.
- We will continue to watch forward-looking indicators, including in regional Fed surveys, PMIs, and ISMs, to see whether the post-November election bounce can be sustained: early incoming evidence is that it won't be, given sharply deteriorated sentiment.
