EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 8 September
Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Finland and Italy are due to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be E24.8bln in first-round operations, down from E26.8bln this week.
- On Monday morning, Germany will look to sell E1.5bln of the 11-month Aug 19, 2026 Bubill.
- On Monday afternoon, France will look to issue up to a combined E7.1bln of 13/26/52-week BTFs: E2.6-3.0bln of the 13-week Dec 10, 2025 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the 26-week Mar 11, 2026 BTF and E1.8-2.2bln of the new 52-week Sep 9, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday morning, Spain will look to come to the market with the 3-month Dec 5, 2025 letras and the 9-month Jun 5, 2026 letras. Details of the auction size will be announced on Monday.
- Also on Tuesday morning, Belgium will look sell E3.0-3.4bln of TCs: An indicative E1.2bln of the 3-month Dec 11, 2025 TC and an indicative E2.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 10, 2026 TC.
- Finally on Tuesday, Finland will look to issue up to a combined E2bln of the 8-month May 13, 2026 RFTB and the new 11-month Aug 13, 2026 RFTB.
- To conclude issuance for the week on Wednesday, Italy will look to sell a new 12-month BOT, potentially alongside another BOT. Auction details will be released later today.
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FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.105%(ALLOT 83.04%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.105%(ALLOT 83.04%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 26.35% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.67% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 67.98% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.31
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Still Some Way For Full Tariff Impact To Show On Prices
Looking ahead to next week’s US CPI (Tue) and PPI (Thu) releases, latest monthly tariff revenue for July suggests we’re still some way off seeing the full impact from tariffs on prices.
- The effective tariff rate currently stands at 18.3% according to Yale Budget Lab calculations (pre-substitution, i.e. keeping trade shares constant), up from 15.5-16% through June and 16.6% in July.
- In contrast, the $30bn of Treasury deposits from customs and certain excise duties in July was worth 11.0% of goods imports in 2024 (likely reflecting June average tariff rates suggesting further increases still to come). That’s up from 10.3% in June, 8.7% in May, 6.3% in April and 3.0% in Dec 2024 prior to the second Trump administration to give a sense of baseline.
- (Note that this 11.0% rate would be 10.3% if using a 12mth sum up to latest data for June owing to the sharp rise in imports in 1Q25. This dynamic approach with recent data can be misleading).
- Alternatively, these tariff revenues in July were worth ~1.7% of overall personal consumption expenditure, an increase of 1.3pp under the Trump administration.
- Of course, this doesn’t give insight into burden sharing across importers, businesses and consumers.
- On the former, June US import prices showed a partial correction stronger for those from China after what had looked like some taking of a tariff hit in April and May (implied by lower than usual import prices), but import prices more generally haven’t shown much concession. That’s in contrast to NEC Director Hassett saying on Aug 4 that data shows tariffs are being borne by foreign producers, although admittedly the extent to which they’re being borne is vague in that headline.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6468.50 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6358.00 @ 16:20 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: 6244.36 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
- SUP 2: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
- SUP 3: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg
- SUP 4: 6203.65 50-day EMA
Equities sold off sharply Friday on the back of the soft NFP print - pushing prices through mid-July lows in the process. Since that spell of weakness, price has traded either side of support at the 20-day EMA, at 6325.25, signalling scope for a deeper retracement toward the 50-day EMA at 6203.65. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.
