EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 7 July
Jul-04 13:10
Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium and Italy are due to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be E27.6bln in first round operations, up from E20.6bln this week.
- On Monday, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 6-month Jan 14, 2026 Bubill and E1bln of the 11-month Jun 17, 2026 Bubill. This will be the first auction of the 11-month bubill since its re-introduction was announced in DFA's Q3 issuance plan.
- Also on Monday, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 3-month Sep 29, 2025 DTC and E0.5-1.5bln of the 4-month Oct 30, 2025 DTC.
- On Monday afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to E7.5bln of 14/15/27/49-week BTFs: E2.7-3.1bln of the new 14-week Oct 15, 2025 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 15-week Oct 22, 2025 BTF, E1.8-2.2bln of the 27-week Jan 14, 2026 BTF and E1.4-1.8bln of the 49-week Jun 17, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday, Spain will look to sell the 3-month Oct 10, 2025 letras and the 9-month Apr 10, 2026 letras, with size details to be announced on Monday.
- Also on Tuesday, Belgium will look to issue E2.6-3.0bln of TCs: An indicative E1.0bln of the 3-month Oct 16, 2025 TC and an indicative E1.8bln of the new 12-month Jul 9, 2026 TC.
- Finally on Thursday, Italy will look to hold a BOT auction. A new 12-month BOT will be on offer, potentially alongside another BOT. Details will be announced on Monday.
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BOC: June Decision: Hold Is 80+% Priced
Jun-04 13:10
The Bank of Canada decision is in just over 30 minutes (0945ET) - our full preview is here (PDF link) :
- The BOC is likely to keep the overnight rate at 2.75%. Current OIS meeting-dated pricing implies between 15-20% probability of a 25bp cut today, though there are multiple analysts who have a cut as their base case - and the BOC has been known to surprise in the past.
- The next meeting in July is still very much "live" both with analysts and market pricing, with 17bp cumulative cuts priced through then, though the first full cut pricing is only through September's decision. 40bp of cuts are priced for the remainder of 2025.
- Statement / Press Conference: Consensus appears to be for a "dovish hold", keeping the door open to a cut in July. The BoC will emphasize once again that it is committed to maintaining price stability amid high levels of uncertainty. We wouldn’t expect any sort of firmer forward guidance.
- Monetary Policy Report / Projections: There is no MPR at this meeting – the next release is in July.
EQUITIES: EU Bank Vol trade
Jun-04 13:09
SX7E (19th Dec) 200^, bought for 18.10 in 7k.
STIR: Post-ADP SOFR Option Update
Jun-04 13:03
- -20,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.25/96.50 put trees, 2.0 vs. 96.175/0.22%
- +2,000 SFRZ5 97.12 calls, 6.5
- +3,500 SFRQ5 95.62/95.75 put spds, 2.5 ref 95.92
- +3,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.75 1x2 call spds 1.25
