EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 3 November
Oct-31 16:00
Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, the ESM and the EU are scheduled to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be E28.2bln in first round operations, up from E13.9bln this week.
- On Monday morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 6-month May 13, 2026 Bubill and E1.5bln of the 11-month Oct 14, 2026 Bubill.
- Also on Monday morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 4-month Feb 26, 2026 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the new 6-month Apr 29, 2026 DTC.
- On Monday afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to a combined E7.6bln of 13/26/28/52-week BTFs: E2.8-3.2bln of the 13-week Feb 4, 2026 BTF, E0.1-0.5bln of the 26-week May 6, 2026 BTF, E1.4-1.8bln of the 28-week May 20, 2026 BTF and E1.7-2.1bln of the new 52-week Nov 4, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday morning, Spain will look to sell the 6-month May 8, 2026 letras and the new 12-month Nov 6, 2026 letras. The auction size range will be announced on Monday.
- Also on Tuesday morning, Belgium will look to issue a combined E2.0-2.4bln of TCs: An indicative E800mln of the Feb 12, 2026 TC, an indicative E800mln of the May 14, 2026 TC and an indicative E800mln of the Oct 15, 2026 TC.
- Finally on Tuesday, the ESM will look to come to the market with up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Feb 5, 2026 bills.
- To conclude issuance for the week on Wednesday, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month May 8, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Nov 6, 2026 EU-bill.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-01 16:00
- EUR/USD: Oct03 $1.1700(E1.2bln), $1.1845-55(E2.2bln), $1.1875(E1.2bln); Oct06 $1.1700(E1.1bln); Oct07 $1.1650(E1.8bln), $1.1750(E1.0bln), $1.1820(E1.7bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct03 Y148.00($1.0bln); Oct06 Y147.00($1.3bln)
- EUR/GBP: Oct03 Gbp0.8785-05
- AUD/USD: Oct03 $0.6600(A$1.5bln); Oct06 $0.6700(A$1.1bln)
- NZD/USD: Oct03 $0.6450(N$1.2bln)
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bounces Off Support At The 50-Day EMA
Oct-01 15:45
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 112-31/113-00 High Oct 01 / High Sep 24
- PRICE: 112-22+ @ 16:41 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 112-01 50.0% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
Prices bounced Wednesday, despite the short-term bear cycle. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-10+. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged, at 113-00, the Sep 24 high.
MNI: US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +1.79M TO 416.5M SEP 26 WK
Oct-01 15:33
- US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +1.79M TO 416.5M SEP 26 WK
- US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS +0.58M TO 123.6M IN SEP 26 WK
- US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS +4.12M TO 220.7M IN SEP 26 WK
- US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS -0.27M TO 23.5M BARRELS IN SEP 26 WK
- US EIA: SPR +0.74M TO 406.7M BARRELS IN SEP 26 WK
- US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE -1.6% TO 91.4% IN SEP 26 WK
