EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 26 May
France, Austria, Greece and Italy are all due to sell bills in the upcoming week. We expect issuance to be E17.1bln in first-round operations, down from up E20.0bln last week.
- France will kick off issuance for the week with up to E7.1bln of 14/25/51-week BTFs on offer: E2.9-3.3bln of the new 14-week Sep 3, 2025 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the 25-week Nov 19, 2025 BTF and E1.5-1.9bln of the 51-week May 20, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday, Austria will look to sell E1bln of the 2-month Jul 24, 2025 ATB alongside E2bln of the 3-month Aug 28, 2025 Green ATB.
- On Wednesday, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 26-week Nov 28, 2025 GTB.
- Also on Wednesday, Italy will look to sell E6.5bln of the new 6-month Nov 28, 2025 BOT.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
- RES 3: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3424 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3276 @ 16:04 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 1.3234/3207 Intraday low / High Apr 3 1
- SUP 2: 1.3099 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2923 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10
The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and fresh cycle highs this week reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3434 next, the Sep 26 ‘24 high. Support to watch is 1.3099, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback appears corrective.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rises to $171.780B this afternoon from $137.951B yesterday. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B. The number of counterparties at 45.
US: New Polling Shows Trump Weakness On Immigration and Executive Overreach
According to a new study from the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania, “Large majorities of U.S. adults support the role of the courts and Congress in serving as checks on presidential power, even though the public has less trust in all three branches of the federal government than it does in many other American institutions and professions”.
- The study notes: “A majority of Americans (60%) think the country is going in the wrong direction and a slim majority (54%) think a year from now the economy will be worse than it is today.
- “A strong majority (69%) of Americans say the president should follow a Supreme Court ruling, even if the president believes the ruling prevents him from protecting the country from a terrorist attack.”
- An Economist/YouGov survey out this morning found that Trump's net approval on his handling of the economy has dropped to -12 (last week -7; start of term +12).
- The YouGov survey also notes that his approval on handling of immigration has dropped to -5 (start of term +11), indicating that, taking with the above data on presidential overreach, Trump is now vulnerable on his core issue. Should this trend continue, Trump may face more resistance from moderate Republicans in Congress facing challenging midterm elections.
Figure 1: Response to the Following Statements
Source: Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania.
