EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 20 October

Germany, France, Austria, Greece and Italy are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E21.7bln in first-round operations, up from E19.1bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E2bln of the 3-month Dec 10, 2025 Bubill and E3bln of the 9-month Jun 17, 2026 Bubill.
• This afternoon, France will look to issue up to a combined E7.4bln of 14/20/28/50-week BTFs: E2.4-2.8bln of the 14-week Dec 31, 2025 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 20-week Feb 11, 2026 BTF, E1.8-2.2bln of the new 28-week Apr 9, 2026 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 50-week Sep 9, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Austria will look to come to the market with E1bln of the 4-month Jan 29, 2026 ATB and E1.25bln of the new 6-month Mar 26, 2026 green ATB.
• On Wednesday morning, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 26-week Mar 27, 2027 GTB.
• Finally on Thursday morning, Italy will look to hold a BOT auction, selling a new 6-month BOT potentially alongside another existing BOT. Details will be announced this afternoon.

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 106.955 @ 06:17 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 106.955 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 106.948 1.382 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.500 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent weakness confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a bear trigger. Price has also traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today. This maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 106.948 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.

• RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• PRICE: 1.3466 @ 06:30 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 1.3453 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3441 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
• SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.3282 Low Aug 6      

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from last Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3441, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.