EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 20 October

Oct-17 14:39

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Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM and Greece are due to sell bills next week. We expect issu...

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Sep-17 14:38

-6,028 UXYZ5 116-06.5, sell through 116-07.5 post time bid at 1019:41ET, DV01 $552,000.
The 10Y Ultra contract trades 116-07.5 last (+0.00)

Sep-17 14:37

Sep-17 14:36

Q4 issuance plans are due for release tomorrow at 9:00BST / 10:00CET.
This will incorporate the addition of 7-year Bund auctions but with December a quiet month for German auctions, it is likely the increase in overall bond issuance will be less than Q3’s E15bln.
All in all, we think that this would see bond issuance increase by E12-13bln (versus E15bln in Q3).
We have less conviction regarding Bubill issuance – seeing two way risks to the E4bln that was added to Q3’s schedule.
We think that there is scope to increase the two Schatz taps by E1.0bln each to E5.0bln and E4.5bln respectively (potentially to E5.0bln for both).
10-year Bund auctions can be increased to E5.0bln each, too, which would add E3.5bln to issuance.
The DFA may be hesitant to add to Bobl issuance given that it will be adding 7-year Bund auctions to the scheduled. We expect two 7-year Bund auctions but of a smaller E3bln size (relative to the E4bln size seen in Q3).
We also think there is scope to add a second 15-year Bund auction to the quarter (at present there is only one). This may be preferable to increasing the size of the scheduled 15/30-year auctions.

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