EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 20 October
Oct-17 14:39
Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM and Greece are due to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be E19.6bln in first-round operations, down from E20.4bln this week.
- On Monday morning, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 3-month Jan 14, 2026 Bubill and E3bln of the 9-month Jul 15, 2026 Bubill.
- Also on Monday morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 3-month Jan 29, 2026 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the 5-month Mar 30, 2026 DTC.
- On Monday afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to a combined E8.0bln of 13/28/42/50-week BTFs: E3.0-3.4bln of the 13-week Jan 21, 2026 BTF, E1.8-2.2bln of the new 28-week May 6, 2026 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 42-week Aug 12, 2026 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 50-week Oct 7, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Apr 23, 2026 bills.
- Finally on Wednesday morning, Greece will look to issue E500mln of the new 26-week Apr 24, 2026 GTB.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 10Y Ultra Sale
Sep-17 14:38
- -6,028 UXYZ5 116-06.5, sell through 116-07.5 post time bid at 1019:41ET, DV01 $552,000.
- The 10Y Ultra contract trades 116-07.5 last (+0.00)
MNI: US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -9.28M TO 415.4M SEP 12 WK
Sep-17 14:37
- US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -9.28M TO 415.4M SEP 12 WK
- US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS +4.05M TO 124.7M IN SEP 12 WK
- US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS -2.35M TO 217.6M IN SEP 12 WK
- US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS -0.3M TO 23.6M BARRELS IN SEP 12 WK
- US EIA: SPR +0.5M TO 405.7M BARRELS IN SEP 12 WK
- US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE -1.6% TO 93.3% IN SEP 12 WK
EGB FUNDING UPDATE: German DFA Q4 issuance plan due tomorrow morning
Sep-17 14:36
- Q4 issuance plans are due for release tomorrow at 9:00BST / 10:00CET.
- This will incorporate the addition of 7-year Bund auctions but with December a quiet month for German auctions, it is likely the increase in overall bond issuance will be less than Q3’s E15bln.
- All in all, we think that this would see bond issuance increase by E12-13bln (versus E15bln in Q3).
- We have less conviction regarding Bubill issuance – seeing two way risks to the E4bln that was added to Q3’s schedule.
- We think that there is scope to increase the two Schatz taps by E1.0bln each to E5.0bln and E4.5bln respectively (potentially to E5.0bln for both).
- 10-year Bund auctions can be increased to E5.0bln each, too, which would add E3.5bln to issuance.
- The DFA may be hesitant to add to Bobl issuance given that it will be adding 7-year Bund auctions to the scheduled. We expect two 7-year Bund auctions but of a smaller E3bln size (relative to the E4bln size seen in Q3).
- We also think there is scope to add a second 15-year Bund auction to the quarter (at present there is only one). This may be preferable to increasing the size of the scheduled 15/30-year auctions.
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