EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 13 October

Italian industrial production was stronger than expected in July, rising 0.4% M/M (0.1% consensus, 0.2% prior). Energy was a major drag, and all other main sectors within the print came in strong. The release caps off a month arguably on the firmer side for the four largest Eurozone economies, after Germany saw an expansion on a sequential comparison, Spain's print was dragged by often volatile capital and energy production while accelerating on a Y/Y comparison, and France saw a contraction but on the back of one-off factors.

• Italian 3m/3m IP growth remains positive but only marginally so at 0.1% in July, the lowest since February after 0.2% in June and 0.8% in May.
• Underlying sectors exhibited strength in August in Italy: Consumer goods 2.1% M/M (-0.6% prior, highest rate since January), capital goods 1.6% (fifth consecutive expansion, vs 0.5% prior), intermediate goods 0.7% (0.2% prior).
• Energy, however, was much weaker than before, at -7.8% M/M (0.2% prior, lowest rate since March 2020). Remember that Spain also saw low energy production in the month. Our commodities team says that Italian power consumption and gas-fired power generation declined M/M in July in non-seasonally adjusted terms. This may be due to a heatwave seen in late June.
• Note that in August, the Italy manufacturing PMI outperformed expectations: "Improvement in the health of the sector for the first time in nearly one-and-a-half years [...] noticeable rise in production volumes in August, which was the most marked in almost two-and-a-half years. The renewed uplift in overall order books was only mild, however, as the drag from export performance widened. Net employment decreased again, while business optimism faded."

The Senate Banking Committee is shortly due to gavel in for executive session to vote on the nomination of Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran to serve on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. LIVESTREAM

• As there has been little Republican opposition, the Committee is expected to vote in favour of Miran’s nomination, teeing up a full Senate vote next week. Miran is expected to be confirmed to the Fed board in time for the September 16-17 FOMC meeting.
• One potential Republican 'no' vote on the panel, Senator Thom Tillis (R-SC), said on Monday he would vote in favour of Miran's nomination despite concerns over Miran retaining his job in the Trump administration, as he would only serve a short time on the board.
• “With his intent to potentially go back to the [CEA], I don’t think he’d be appropriate for a long-term role, but I’ll support him for the short term,” Tillis said.

• MNI:US JUL WHOLESALE INV 0.1%; SALES 1.4%