EU AUTOMOTIVE: Volkswagen (VW): FY25 Prelim Cash Flow
Jan-21 18:17
Slight credit positive. While margins are the most pressing issue for VW, this is a meaningful cash ...
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP Weekly, GDP, IP/Cap-U, 2Y FRN/5Y Sales
Dec-22 18:16
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/23 0815 ADP Weekly NER Pulse (16.25k, --)
- 12/23 0830 GDP Price Index (2.1%, 2.7%)
- 12/23 0830 GDP Annualized QoQ (3.8%, 3.2%)
- 12/23 0830 Durable Goods Orders (0.5%, -1.5%), ex-trans (0.6%, 0.3%)
- 12/23 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-16.3, --)
- 12/23 0855 Redbook Retail Sales
- 12/23 0915 Industrial Production (0.1%, 0.1%), Capacity-U (75.9%, 75.9%)
- 12/23 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-15, -10)
- 12/23 1000 Conf Board Consumer Confidence (88.7, 91.0)
- 12/23 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W & $50B 52W bill auctions
- 12/23 1300 US Tsy $28B 2Y FRN (91282CPG0) & $70B 5Y Note (91282CPR6) auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
FOREX: Softer USD Backdrop Prevailing, Katayama Sounds JPY Intervention Alarm
Dec-22 18:03
- The US dollar is notably weaker on Monday, with the USD index sliding roughly 0.35% as we approach the APAC crossover. This dynamic kept the focus on gold throughout the session, trading firmly to fresh all-time highs above $4,400/oz. Geopolitics remain in focus for FX markets with the US oil blockade of Venezuela continuing and US-European-Ukraine-Russia talks ended without a breakthrough with special envoy Witkoff saying that they were “productive and constructive".
- Firmer equity and oil/metal prices have boosted the likes of AUD and NZD to the top of the leaderboard, while GBP and JPY have also risen notably. NZDUSD has shrugged off the weakness from late last week and has returned to its medium-term pivot level of 0.5800, ahead of resistance which stands at 0.5831, the Dec 11 high.
- AUDUSD meanwhile remains in a bullish trend structure ahead of tomorrow's RBA minutes. The minutes will be scrutinised for more information around the board's degree of concern about upside inflation risks as well as how much this translates to the RBA's stance being skewed to the upside. AUDUSD is pressing towards resistance at 0.6686 December 10 high.
- An extension of GBPUSD strength was most notable during US hours, breaking above last week's 1.3456 highs, bolstering the ongoing bull theme and signalling scope for a move to 1.3527, the Oct 1 high.
- The Japanese finance minister Katayama provided the most forceful warning of intervention on Monday, stating that the MoF have a ‘free hand’ to take bold action on the currency. This kept pressure on USDJPY, which erased around 100 pips of the strong rally seen following the BOJ’s hike last Friday. Sights remain on key resistance at 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger.
- In emerging markets, BRLMXN weakness continues to standout amid mounting political uncertainty in Brazil and ongoing Mexican peso resilience. The cross dropped another 1.2% today, closing in on 23 year lows just above 3.20.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 2Y Note Auction: Smal Tail
Dec-22 18:03
- Tsy futures hold modestly lower after the $69B 2Y note auction (91282CPS5) tails: 3.499% high yield vs. 3.497% WI; 2.58x bid-to-cover vs. 2.68x prior.
- Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up retreats to 53.21% from 58.07% prior, directs rise to 34.05% vs. 30.74% prior, primary dealer take-up 12.74% vs. 11.18% prior.
- The next 2Y auction is tentatively scheduled for January 26.
