ECB: Villeroy Stresses That Inflation Risks Are To Downside
Early post December meeting ECB speak coming from Villeroy, speaking to Le Figaro. A reminder that V...
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BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Phase Still In Play
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.76 @ Close Nov 18
- SUP 1: 120.53 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25
The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 156.58 2.236 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 3: 156.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 155.73 High Nov 18
- PRICE: 155.49 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 153.68 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 3: 151.74 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
A fresh cycle high in USDJPY yesterday confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of recent gains. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the 156.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch is 153.68, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
UK DATA: Services lower (but air fares soft); food softer than BOE above cons
- Headline CPI only 4 hundredths below BOE forecast with a weak 3.6%Y/Y rounded print (3.56% unrounded).
- Services was a tenth lower than the BOE forecast but note that air fares were only 1.68%M/M - that's at the bottom end of expectations which ranged from around flat to as high as 20-25%M/M.
- Food prices higher than consensus expected but lower than the BOE forecast.
