AUSTRALIA DATA: Vacancies Appear To Be Stabilising
Vacancies in the 3-months to May (Q2) rose 2.9% q/q resulting in an improvement in the annual rate to -2.8% from -9.2% in Q1. The ratio to unemployment rose 1.3pp to 54.8%, in line with the four quarter average. It fell consistently for two years from Q3 2022 after reaching an unusual 92.5% but the vacancy environment now appears to have stabilised. The RBA doesn’t just consider headline jobs and unemployment data but also indicators such as vacancies. The market expects a July rate cut but data suggest the labour market remains tight.
Australia vacancies-to-unemployment %
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG
- In terms of other vacancy series, SEEK May job ads fell 0.3% m/m after rising 1.8% m/m and are down 5.6% y/y. Internet vacancies fell 2.8% m/m in May and the ratio to unemployment has settled around the series average. ANZ job ads were down 1.2% m/m in May to be down 5% y/y up from -13.3% y/y in January.
- There was a pickup in both private and public job openings in Q2 at 3.2% q/q and 0.6% q/q respectively.
- The ABS noted that the rise in Q2 vacancies “was driven by industries with a high proportion of skilled workers, including Professional, scientific and technical services, and Construction”.
- However, with only 8 out of 18 industries recording an increase in openings, the rise in Q2 was not particularly broad based. Construction saw the largest rise +20.6% q/q, while wholesale trade fell 13.3% q/q.
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