POWER: Uniper Advances German 2025 Power Hedges, Nordic 2025-27 Hedges
Uniper has advanced its outright power hedges for Germany for 2025, while achieving higher prices on the quarter. The utility also advanced outright power hedges for the Nordics for 2025-2027 at similar achieved prices.
- For Germany, Uniper hedged 85% of its planned power generation for 2025 at an average achieved price of €126/MWh as of 1Q25. This compares to 80% hedged at €121/MWh as of the end of 2024.
- For 2026, the utility hedged 35% of its planned German output at €92/MWh as of the end of the first quarter. At the end of 2024, the firm hedged 30% of its planned output for 2026 at €86/MWh.
- For 2027, Uniper hedged 5% of its planned output at an average achieved price of €86/MWh as of 1Q25, compared with 5% hedged at €80/MWh as of the end of 2024.
- In the Nordics, Uniper hedged 75% of its planned generation for 2025 at an average achieved price of €38/MWh as of 1Q25. This compares to 70% hedged at the same price a quarter earlier.
- For 2026, Uniper hedged 50% of its planned output at €37/MWh as of the end of Q1, compared with 40% hedged at an average achieved price of €38/MWh at the end of 2024.
- For 2027, the utility hedged 30% of its planned generation at €38/MWh at the end of Q1, up from 25% hedged at the same price as of the end of 2024.
- Germany Power Cal 26 up 1.1% at 84.31 EUR/MWh
- Germany Power Cal 27 up 0.8% at 77.7 EUR/MWh
- Nordic Base Power Cal 2026 up 1.2% at 37.5 EUR/MWh
- Nordic Base Power Cal 2027 closed up 1.5% at 37.55 EUR/MWh on 5 May.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Strong S/T Bounce
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.915 - High Apr 4
- PRICE: 95.860 @ 16:42 GMT Apr 04
- SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 2: 1.4308 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4242 High Apr 4
- PRICE: 1.4196 @ 17:10 BST Apr 4
- SUP 1: 1.4028 Low Apr 3
- SUP 2: 1.3986 Low Dec 2 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD rallied Friday, but remains lower on the week after Thursday’s downleg. The move down has confirmed a clear reversal of the bull cycle between Sep 25 ‘24 and Feb 3. Price is through a key support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 1.3944, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 1.4308, the 50-day EMA.
CANADA DATA: Unexpected Jobs Contraction Boosts Implied April BOC Cut Chances
Canadian employment unexpectedly contracted in March, falling by the most since January 2022 at -32.6k (+10.0k expected, +1.1k prior) in a sign that the trade war with the US is spilling over increasingly into the "hard" data. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1pp to 6.7%, in line with expectations and below the November 6.9% high, though unrounded it rose from 6.55% to 6.71% - the largest increase since November.
- The drop in employment was largely due to a 62.0k drop in full-time positions (after -19.7k, the 2nd straight drop), with part-time up for the 4th consecutive month at 29.5k (after 20.8k prior) - that mix is clearly indicative of hiring uncertainty among firms.
- The monthly full-time drop was the 2nd largest since the pandemic lows in the labour market (April 2020). Goods producing jobs fell by 12k (2nd consecutive decline), while services shed 21k (wholesale/retail trade and Information, culture and recreation led losses).
- The participation rate dipped 0.1pp to 65.2%.
- Wages were soft, dropping 0.2% M/M for the first drop since November, with the Y/Y rate slipping to 3.6% from 3.8% prior. The rise in permanent employees' wages of 3.5% Y/Y was well below the 4.1% expected (4.0% prior).
- Market-implied probability of an April BOC rate cut rose to as high as 68% after the data before settling the day at around 55%. That compares to 40% prior to Wednesday's US tariffs announcement.
