BUNDS: UBS Also Issue Long 10s Recommendation
UBS have also issued a tactical long 10-Year Bund trade recommendation, with an entry at 2.86%, targeting a move to 2.70%, with a stop set at 2.95%.
- They think that “term premia priced by the market are high given the long-term outlook for German growth and inflation”.
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SONIA OPTIONS: Latest Option trades
- SFIG6 96.65/96.75/96.85c fly, bought for half in 2k.
- SFIU6 97.00/97.25cs bought for 4 in 2k vs SFIU6 96.50/96.35ps, sold at 5 in 1k.
EU-RUSSIA: Slovakia Raises Objections To Using Frozen Russian Assets Pre-ECOFIN
After the Belgian gov't indicated that it still remains unconvinced about the legality of EU plans to use frozen Russian assets held in the Union to fund Ukraine's war effort and reconstruction, Slovakian PM Robert Fico has voiced his opposition to using the ~EUR140bln held at Belgium's Euroclear as part of 'reparations loans'. The issue is set to be further discussed on 13 Nov in the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels.
- Speaking to domestic broadcaster STVR on 9 Nov, Fico said “Slovakia won’t take part in any legal or financial schemes to seize frozen assets if those funds would be spent on military costs in Ukraine".
- Fico holds a strong hand when it comes to blocking the use of frozen Russian funds. While Belgium has been a strong supporter of sanctions on Russia, Slovakia and Hungary have frequently used the threat of vetoes in order to secure concessions from Brussels. The sanctions must be re-approved each six months, or else they expire. If this occurred, it would see Russia regain access to its frozen assets.
- At the ECOFIN, the Commission is set to present a list of options for financially assisting Ukraine. Given many EU member states face their own pressing fiscal situations, these are unlikely to prove as attractive as using the frozen Russian funds.
- Speculation that Norway (attending the ECOFIN as a guest) could guarantee the loans using its massive sovereign wealth fund is seen as largely fanciful. This raises the prospect that the IMF would be called on as lender of last resort for Kyiv. This is viewed as a sub-optimal outcome as the financial conditions imposed on Kyiv as par of any support package would likely prove more stringent than those from the EU.
US: Veterans Day Exchange Schedules
The observance of the Veterans Day holiday will mean that some U.S. markets are subjected to abbreviated trading hours and/or closures today.
