SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trend Signals Remain Bearish
- RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
- RES 2: 107.168 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.089 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.015 @ 06:26 BST Aug 22
- SUP 1: 106.985 Low Aug 15
- SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
A bear trend in Schatz futures remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent lows. The contract traded lower on August 15, resulting in a print below 106.990, the Aug 12 low. A clear breach of this level would resume the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is 107.089, the 20-day EMA.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 21 July
Greece is still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands, France and Austria have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E17.7bln in first round operations, up from E14.7bln last week.
- This morning, Greece will look to issue E500mln of the new 26-week Jan 23,2026 GTB.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 107.610 High May 23
- RES 3: 107.475 High May 27
- RES 2: 107.430 High Jun 13
- RES 1: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 107.320 @ 06:09 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 107.200/120 Low Jul 15 and 16 / Low Jul 11 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.112 1.236 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
- SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
Schatz futures have traded higher this week, extending the recovery that started on Jul 11. Trend indicators continue to highlight a bear cycle and if correct, this suggests that short-term gains are corrective. Resistance to watch is 107.365, the Jun 7 high. A break would strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 107.120, the Jul 11 low and bear trigger.
GBPUSD TECHS: False Trendline Break?
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.3689 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3577 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3535 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3529 @ 06:33 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16 and the short-term bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday, extending the recovery from the Jul 16 low. Recent weakness resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach is a bearish development, however, the latest bounce also highlights a possible false break. Note that M/T signals still highlight an uptrend. The next resistance to watch is 1.3577, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger is1.3365, Jul 16 low. A break would resume a bear theme.
