SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
- RES 2: 107.175 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.098 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.085 @ 05:53 BST Aug 21
- SUP 1: 106.985 Low Aug 15
- SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
A bear trend in Schatz futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The contract traded lower on August 15, resulting in a print below 106.990, the Aug 12 low. A clear breach of this level would resume the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is 107.098, the 20-day EMA.
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CHINA: Country Wrap: ETF Buying by SWF Rises
- The Shanghai Securities News reported that Central Huijin (China's Sovereign Wealth Fund) purchased CNY200bn of 10 broad based ETF's in Q2 to establish itself as a cornerstone investor in markets.
- The China Securities Journal reported that the mutual fund industry in China has seen total assets under management surpass CNY34 trillion ($4.7tn) by the end of the second quarter.
- China and Hong Kong markets are up modestly, the HSI above 25000 and the CSI 300 around 4100. Onshore media noted the strong buying of local China market ETFs from the sovereign wealth fund through Q2 of this year.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1460 Per USD; Estimate 7.1640
- The 10yr CGB is at at 1.68% in this morning's trading.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 22-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 22-Jul | 1800 | EU | ECB Lagarde At EIB Informal Dinner |
| 23-Jul | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 24-Jul | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 24-Jul | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 24-Jul | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 24-Jul | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 1315 | EU | ECB Decision |
| 24-Jul | 1345 | EU | ECB Press Conference |
| 25-Jul | 0745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25-Jul | 0900 | EU | M3 |
| 25-Jul | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Jul | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 25-Jul | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25-Jul | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
BOBL TECHS: (U5) Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20
- RES 2: 117.980 High Jul 4
- RES 1: 117.930 Intraday high
- PRICE: 117.910 @ 06:00 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 117.450/200 Low Jul 18 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing
- SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 116.885 1.382 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing
Bobl futures traded higher Monday marking an extension of the recovery that started Jul 11. The move higher does undermine the recent bear theme and attention turns to resistance at 117.980, the Jul 4 high, and 118.060, the Jun 20 high. Clearance of the Jun 20 high would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 117.200, the Jul 11 low. A break of this support is required to reinstate a bearish theme.
