SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 119.280 High May 30
• PRICE: 119.190 @ 05:57 BST Jun 2  
• SUP 1: 118.760/390 50-day EMA / Low May 22
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

Bobl futures are holding on to their recent highs. The recovery since May 14  continues to highlight a reversal and the end of the Apr 22 - May 15 corrective cycle. A continuation higher would pave the way for a move towards 119.600, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 119.960, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -0.5) sit little changed after a subdued session with limited newsflow. Today’s domestic data drop was second tier in nature (Home Values, S&P Global PMI Mfg, Melbourne Institute Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements) and so provided limited directional guidance for the local market.

• Cash US tsys have bear-steepened, with yields 1-3bps higher, in today's Asia-Pac session. Monday's US calendar sees ISM Manufacturing data and an appearance by Fed Chair Powell, with the June employment report looming at the end of next week.
• Cash ACGBs are little changed with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given a 72% probability, with a cumulative 77bps of easing priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Q1 Company Operating Profits, Inventories, Current Account Balance alongside RBA Minutes of May Policy Meeting and a speech by the RBA's Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), titled ‘Joining the Dots: Exploring Australia’s Links with the World Economy’.
• This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 3.75% 21 April 2037 bond tomorrow and A$800mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 3: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.1419 High May 26 and a bull trigger     
• PRICE: 1.1368 @ 06:08 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.1210 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 1.1172/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Support to watch lies at 1.1172, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.1065, the May 12 low. On the upside, a break of 1.1419, the May 26 high, would be bullish and open 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger.