BOBL TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Its Recent Low
- RES 4: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 117.641 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 117.520 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117.460 High Jul 28
- PRICE: 117.200 @ 06:01 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)
Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows following a pull back from the Jul 22 high. The contract has breached a key support at 117.200, the Jul 11 low, however price remains above the Jul 25 low. A bullish candle pattern on Jul 25 and 28 - a hammer formation followed by an engulfing signal - highlights a potential base. Initial resistance to watch is 117.520, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger lies at 116.970, the Jul 25 low.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 02-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB de Guindos Chairs Sintra Panel |
| 02-Jul | 1000 | EU | Unemployment |
| 02-Jul | 1000 | EU | ECB Cipollone Chairs Sintra Panel |
| 02-Jul | 1130 | EU | ECB Lane Chairs Sintra Panel |
| 02-Jul | 1515 | EU | ECB Lagarde Gives Closing Sintra Remarks |
| 03-Jul | 0815 | ES | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 0845 | IT | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 0850 | FR | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 0855 | DE | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 04-Jul | 0700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04-Jul | 0745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 04-Jul | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 04-Jul | 0830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04-Jul | 0900 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 04-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB Elderson Speech At IMF OEDNE/World Bank Meeting |
| 04-Jul | 1000 | EU | PPI |
JGBS: Cash Bond Twist-Flattener, 30Y Supply Tomorrow
JGB futures are weaker and at Tokyo session lows, -13 compared to settlement levels.
- (Bloomberg) -- "Japan will continue actively negotiating tariffs in good faith with the US for both countries' mutual benefit, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki says at a regular press conference on Wednesday."
- (Bloomberg) Japan’s 30-year bond auction on Thursday will likely see “modest to safe” results, according to Barclays Securities’ strategists Ayao Ehara and Shinichiro Kadota.
- Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session. Wednesday's US data focus is on MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, Challenger Jobs at 0730ET followed by ADP Employment Change at 0815ET. No scheduled Fed speakers. Thursday is a heavy data day with NFP added due to the Independence Day holiday closure on Friday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-flattened across benchmarks with yields 1bp higher to 1bp lower, pivoting at the 20-year. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.4bps higher at 1.408% versus the cycle high of 1.596%.
- Swaps are slightly mixed across maturities.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow and S&P Global Composite & Services PMI data alongside 30-year supply.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30
- RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
- RES 1: 107.320 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.250 @ 05:42 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23
- SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
Schatz futures remain inside a range and price is trading below the Jun 13 high. Support to watch is 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm resistance is 107.430, Jun 13 high.
