SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13
- RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 107.229 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.168 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.100 @ 07:13 BST Aug 8
- SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
The sell-off in Schatz futures between Jul 23 - 25, resulted in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A resumption of gains would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.168. The 50-day EMA is at 107.229. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BRENT TECHS: (U5) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $69.69 @ 07:06 BST Jul 9
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Short-term conditions in Brent futures are unchanged, they remain bearish and the latest round of gains are considered corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, highlighting a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
BUNDS: Supply could again be in Focus Today
- A quieter Overnight session for Bund, just a 10 ticks range going into the Cash open, now 15 post open
The May's high in Yield provided the support in Futures, this will remain today. - Initial small resistance moves down to 129.78.
- Near term risk is still to the downside and towards 128.97, this was May's low for this expiry, but looking back at the June expiry (RXM5), May's low was at 129.19.
- US Trump said that he will push forward with his aggressive Tariffs, adding that he would not offer any extensions past the 1st August. Threatened to impose 50% on Copper coming into the US, and as high as 200% on Pharmaceuticals.
- Today is another very light day on the Data front, the only release will be the US Wholesales, but this will be the final reading.
- Some Desks will look Towards the FOMC minutes, but unlikely to be a market mover given that Tariff risks are the forefront.
- Focus will again likely be on Supply Today.
- SUPPLY: UK £4.5bn 2035 is heavy (equates to 38.8k Gilts) will weigh, Germany 15s, 20s (equates to 30.3k) could weigh into the bidding deadline, Portugal 2031, 2052 (won't impact Bund), US Sells $39bn of 10yr reopening.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lane, Guindos, Nagel.
BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.44 @ Close Jul 8
- SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23 low.
