BOBL TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
- RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
- RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 118.065 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg
- PRICE: 117.810 @ 06:00 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21
- SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27
Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle, however, the contract continues to trade in consolidation mode and below its Jun 13 high. The latest pullback has exposed key S/T support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel the recent bull theme. This would open 117.470, the May 21 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.390, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish.
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EURUSD TECHS: Bull Phase Extends
- RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.1406 @ 06:20 BST May 26
- SUP 1: 1.1259 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1134/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
- SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10
EURUSD is trading higher today, extending the current bull phase. Trend conditions are bullish and MA studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Sights are on 1.1453, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 1.1134, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 26-May | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 26-May | 1420 | EU | ECB's Lagarde On Europe's Role In A Fragmented World |
| 27-May | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27-May | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) |
| 27-May | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 28-May | 0745 | FR | GDP (f) / PPI / Monthly Consumer Spending |
| 28-May | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 29-May | 0900 | IT | Consumer / Business Confidence |
| 30-May | 0700 | DE | Retail Sales / Import/Export Prices |
| 30-May | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 30-May | 0900 | EU | M3 |
| 30-May | 0900 | IT | GDP (f) |
| 30-May | 0900 | DE | State-level CPI |
| 30-May | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-May | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-May | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
OIL: Crude Moderately Higher As Trade Fears Abate
Oil prices are slightly higher during APAC trading helped by news that the US and EU would continue trade talks and that reciprocal tariffs would be delayed until July 9, the original timeframe. The USD index is down 0.3%, which is also providing support to dollar-denominated crude.
- WTI is up 0.4% to $61.76/bbl off the intraday low of $61.51. It rose to $62.14 early in the session following the US-EU trade news, approaching initial resistance at $62.75, 50-day EMA. Gains continue to be seen as corrective but a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal a stronger reversal.
- Brent is 0.4% higher at $65.06, off the intraday low of $64.77. It reached $65.40 earlier. Technicals suggest a short-term bullish theme but in the medium-term it is bearish. The bear trigger is at $58, while initial resistance is $66.24, 50-day EMA.
- Through geopolitical and trade headlines, crude continues to watch OPEC closely. It meets on Sunday to decide output plans from July. It has decided to increase production substantially this year as it focuses on gaining market share rather than on prices and thus penalising overproducing members. Another rise is generally expected increasing excess supply for 2025 and likely 2026 further.
- The US and UK are closed today for holidays. ECB President Lagarde speaks later.
