SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Holds
- RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13
- RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 107.202 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.128 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.085 @ 07:20 BST Aug 14
- SUP 1: 106.990 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
The sell-off in Schatz futures resulted in the bear trigger being pierced Tuesday: the 107.010 support gave way, signalling potential for further near-term losses. The move lower marked new contract lows, exposing projection levels layered between 106.928-107.993, which should act as a modest zone of support ahead of the March levels on the continuation contract. The 20-day EMA remains the upside level of interest, having defined the early August downtrend, today at 107.128.
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GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16
- RES 1: $3375.0 - High Jul 14
- PRICE: $3360.6 @ 07:26 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg
A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. On the downside, the bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
BUNDS: Yields Lower, New Schatz Issuance Eyed
5+-Year German yields are 1.0-1.5bp lower in early cash trade. BBG’s generic 2-Year yield is showing ~2bp, but this accounts for this morning’s EUR5bln introduction of the new 1.90% Sep-27 Schatz, so any optical twist flattening is artificial.
BRENT TECHS: (U5) Recent Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $69.03 @ 07:11 BST Jul 14
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Short-term conditions in Brent futures remain bearish and gains since Jun 30 appear corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, highlighting a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
