BUND TECHS: (U5) Strong Daily Close

A narrow Asia-Pac range for Bund futures, with the contract sticking within yesterday’s boundaries, last +11 at 129.29.

• Bears remain in technical control, with initial support at yesterday’s low (129.08). Meanwhile, initial resistance is located at 20-day EMA (130.06).
• Both the German 2s10s and 5s30s curves are moving back towards year-to-date closing highs, with domestic and global factors being felt, despite already elevated steepener positioning.
• No reaction to the Asia-Pac rally in e-minis/Euro Stoxx futures, which was aided by news that Nvidia plans to resume some sales to China following assurances/an agreement with U.S. policymakers.
• Mixed Chinese GDP & monthly economic activity data also failed to have a meaningful impact.
• Notes that RTRS sources have suggested that “U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened 30% tariff on European Union imports is complicating the European Central Bank's decision-making but is unlikely to derail plans for a pause in rate cuts next week”.
• The German ZEW survey and final CPI data from Spain is due today, but the major macro input will come in the form of U.S. CPI.
• On the supply front, Germany will sell EUR5bln of the new 1.90% Sep-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22106).
• Also worth remembering that French PM Bayrou will outline his budget cutting plan later today, with related political risks well defined and ongoing.

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 92.79 High Jul 4      
• RES 2: 92.29 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 92.19 High Jul 10 
• PRICE: 91.83 @ Close Jul 14 
• SUP 1: 91.42 Low Jul 8   
• SUP 2: 91.16 Low Feb 2
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg    
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. The move down exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.29, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3 
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 147.89 Intraday high
• PRICE: 147.61 @ 07:01 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 146.14 Low Jul 11   
• SUP 2: 145.30 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
• SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support  

A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains intact. Price is approaching the next important resistance, at 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and expose key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. On the downside, support to watch is 145.20, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish and highlight a possible reversal.