SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Southbound
- RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
- RES 2: 107.178 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.099 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.035 @ 06:24 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: 106.985 Low Aug 15
- SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
A bear trend in Schatz futures remains intact. The contract traded lower on August 15, resulting in a print below 106.990, the Aug 12 low. A clear breach of this level would resume the current downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Initial resistance is 107.099, the 20-day EMA.
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EURGBP TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8698 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 0.8668 @ 06:41 BST Jul 21
- SUP 1: 0.8630 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 0.8615 20- day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8551 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
The trend outlook in EURGBP is bullish and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Fresh cycle highs last week maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch is unchanged at 0.8615, the 20-day EMA.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 21 July
Germany, the Netherlands, France, Austria and Greece are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E17.3bln in first round operations, up from E14.7bln last week.
- This morning, Germany will look to sell E2bln of the 3-month Oct 15, 2025 Bubill and E3bln of the 9-month Apr 15, 2026 Bubill.
- Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 2.5-month Sep 29, 2025 DTC and E0.5-1.5bln of the 3.5-month Oct 30, 2025 DTC.
- This afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to E7.2bln of 14/21/25/51-week BTFs: E2.7-3.1bln of the new 14-week Oct 29, 2025 BTF, E0.1-0.5bln of the 21-week Dec 17, 2025 BTF, E1.2-1.6bln of the 25-week Jan 14, 2026 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 51-week Jul 15, 2026 BTF.
- Tomorrow morning, Austria will look to sell E1bln of the 3-month Oct 30, 2025 ATB and E1bln of the new 6-month Jan 29, 2026 ATB.
- On Wednesday morning, Greece will look to issue E500mln of the new 26-week Jan 23,2026 GTB.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 107.475 High May 27
- RES 3: 107.430 High Jun 13
- RES 2: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 107.315 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 107.275 @ 06:14 BST Jul 21
- SUP 1: 107.200/120 Low Jul 15 and 16 / Low Jul 11 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.112 1.236 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
- SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
Schatz futures are trading above their recent lows. However, a bear cycle remains in play and short-term gains appear corrective. A recent move down resulted in a breach of support at 107.195 and 107.180, the Jun 6 and 23 lows respectively. This highlighted a range breakout. A resumption of weakness would open 107.112, a Fibonacci projection, and the 117.000 handle. Key near-term resistance is at 107.365, the Jul 7 high.
