BUND TECHS: (U5) Potential Reversal
- RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
- RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 130.11/76 50-day EMA / High Jul 22
- RES 1: 130.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 129.92@ 14:58 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont)
- SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)
Bund futures have traded sharply higher today, reinforcing a bullish theme. The sell-off on Jul 25, resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. Price has recovered and this key support remains intact, for now. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal. A continuation higher would open 130.76, the Jul 22 high. Key support to watch is 128.84, the Jul 25 low.
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SOFR OPTIONS: Morning Roundup
Mixed trade since the open - two-way with call volume outpacing puts. Underlying bear steepening sees projected rate cut pricing firming slightly vs. morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -5.8bp (-4.8bp), Sep'25 at -29.6bp (-28.1bp), Oct'25 at -46.3bp (-44.3bp), Dec'25 at -65.5bp (-63.5bp).
- -5,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.93/96.00/96.18 call condors, 13.25 - more offered
- -5,000 SFRN5 96.00 calls, 4.5-4.25 ref 95.99
- +5,000 SFRU6 98.00/99.00 2x3 call spds, 8.0 ref 96.86
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25/96.50 1x3x2 call flys, 2 ref 96.00
- 3,700 SFRZ5 96.37/96.43/96.50/96.56 call condors ref 96.325
- 2,500 3QQ5 96.37/96.50 2x1 put spds ref 96.55
- -2,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.87/96.00 put flys, 3.5
STIR: Hawkish Adjustments In GBP STIRs Surrounding Reeves' Future
GBP STIR curves have also hawkishly steepened on speculation surrounding the future of Chancellor Reeves.
- The potential departure of Reeves could result in a watering down of the UK’s fiscal rules, limiting the BoE’s room to ease.
- BoE-dated OIS now little changed to 2bp less dovish on the day across ’25 meetings.
- Over 80% odds of a 25bp cut still priced for August, with such a step fully discounted through the September meeting.
- December meeting pricing shows ~53bp of cumulative cuts after failing to move decisively through 55bp of cuts in recent sessions.
- SONIA futures last 0.5-16.0 lower.
- SFIZ5/Z6 steepens away from year-to-date lows in the -25.0 area to print -20.0 last.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.010 | -20.7 |
Sep-25 | 3.945 | -27.2 |
Nov-25 | 3.777 | -44.0 |
Dec-25 | 3.690 | -52.7 |
Feb-26 | 3.561 | -65.6 |
Mar-26 | 3.530 | -68.7 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 6300.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6281.12 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 6277.50 High Feb 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 6270.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6242.75 @ 14:45 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 6102.47/5975.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
- SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has continued to appreciate, this week. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. The 6200.00 handle has been cleared too, this opens 6277.50, the Feb 21 high and bull trigger. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5975.80.
