SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7  - 9 price swing  
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 1: 107.550 High May 7 and Friday’s high                   
• PRICE: 107.320 @ 06:25 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 107.175/070 Low May 19 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and resistance at 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high, has been cleared. The break signals a potential stronger reversal. This exposes 107.550, the May 7 high. A break would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a resumption of the recent bear leg would instead signal scope for an extension towards 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low.

Italy will look to issue a BTP Italia while there will be auctions from the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany. We also pencil in a Spanish 10-year syndication. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E30.1bln (excluding the BTP Italia), down from E37.3bln this week.

For the full MNI Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix click here.

• Italy will look to issue a 7-year BTP Italia in the upcoming week, maturing 4 June 2032. This will be the first BTP Italia since March 2023 with an offering for retail investors between tomorrow and Thursday and for institutional investors on Friday. As usual, the BTP Italia is linked to Italian inflation (rather than Eurozone inflation).
• Tomorrow, the Netherlands will come to the market to hold an existing DSL auction. On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the 0% Jul-30 DSL (ISIN: NL0014555419).
• Also tomorrow, Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.50-2.75bln of the on-the-run 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794), E0.75-1.00bln of the 1.25% Sep-32 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005138828) and E0.75-1.00bln of the 1.80% May-36 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005588881).

France, Austria, Greece and Italy are all due to sell bills in the upcoming week. We expect issuance to be E17.1bln in first-round operations, down from up E20.0bln last week.

• France will kick off issuance for the week this afternoon with up to E7.1bln of 14/25/51-week BTFs on offer: E2.9-3.3bln of the new 14-week Sep 3, 2025 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the 25-week Nov 19, 2025 BTF and E1.5-1.9bln of the 51-week May 20, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow, Austria will look to sell E1bln of the 2-month Jul 24, 2025 ATB alongside E2bln of the 3-month Aug 28, 2025 Green ATB.
• On Wednesday, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 26-week Nov 28, 2025 GTB.
• Also on Wednesday, Italy will look to sell E6.5bln of the new 6-month Nov 28, 2025 BOT.