BUND TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 130.73/131.33 High Jul 1 / High Jun 20
- PRICE: 130.62 @ 07:40 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: 129.77 Low Jul 3
- SUP 2: 129.67 76.4% retracement of the May 14 - Jun 13 bull leg
- SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22
- SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger
Bund futures traded lower Wednesday resulting in a break of key S/T support at 130.12, Jun 5 low. A clear break of thislevel highlights a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 129.30, the May 22 low. However, the contract has recovered from this week’s low. Initial firm resistance at 130.52, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a possible reversal. The next important resistance is 131.33, the Jun 20 high.
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EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Estox 50: +0.41%, Dax: +0.61%, CAC: +0.35%, FTSE +0.20%, SMI +0.37%.
EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 and bull trigger / High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 164.26 High May 29
- PRICE: 163.75 @ 07:53 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 162.58/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
- SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact. The latest recovery from the May 23 low, signals the end of the corrective pullback between May 13 - 23. If correct, the move higher also marks a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger.
STIR: BoE Pricing Steady, Just Under 40bp Of Cuts Priced Through Dec
GBP STIRs essentially unchanged with Bund futures off overnight lows, aided by U.S. President Trump’s critique of Chinese counterpart Xi.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 39bp of cuts through year-end, with 13.5bp showing through August, ~18bp through September and 31.5bp through November.
- SONIA futures +0.5 to -1.0 across the strip. Terminal policy rate pricing 3.595%.
- Recent ranges reman intact, after the pullback from hawkish extremes in late May.
- Final services and composite PMI data headline a limited UK calendar today, with wider focus set to fall on the U.S. ISM services survey and macro inputs (tariff matters and European fiscal issues remain front and centre there).
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.219 | +0.8 |
Aug-25 | 4.077 | -13.4 |
Sep-25 | 4.034 | -17.7 |
Nov-25 | 3.896 | -31.5 |
Dec-25 | 3.823 | -38.8 |
Feb-26 | 3.717 | -49.4 |
Mar-26 | 3.703 | -50.9 |
