BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Still In Play

Gold prices are off the intraday low of $3374.18/oz to be up 0.2% to $3393.1 and have traded in a relatively narrow range today. They reached a high of $3403.31 early in the session following US President Trump comments that Iran should have signed a nuclear deal when it had the chance and that people should evacuate Tehran. He will leave the G7 meeting early to return to Washington to discuss the Iran-Israel situation. 

• Bullion has found some support from a slightly lower US dollar and US yields.
• Citibank believes that weaker demand and Fed rate cuts will drive gold prices back below $3000/oz over coming quarters, according to Bloomberg.
• Silver is 0.3% higher today at $36.43 to be up 10.5% in June, reinforcing the bullish trend. It is off its intraday low of $36.15. It continues to trade between initial support at $34.84, 20-day EMA, and resistance at $36.89, 9 June high.
• Equities are generally lower with the Hang Seng down 0.1%, S&P e-mini -0.4% but Nikkei up 0.5%. Oil prices are higher with WTI +0.8% to $72.33/bbl. Copper is down 0.4%.
• Later US May retail sales, trade prices, IP, April business inventories and NAHB June housing index are released but the attention is on Wednesday’s FOMC decision and outlook. The euro area/German June ZEW also print today. 

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.85/95 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger / High Jun 13
• RES 1: 131.06 50.0% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg
• PRICE: 130.49 @ 10:12 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 130.17 Low Jun 16              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Bund futures traded lower Monday, extending the reversal from Friday’s session high. For now, the move down is considered corrective and key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and undermine the bullish theme. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high.

Major bourses in Asia were lower today as the uncertainty in the Middle East weighs on sentiment, in a day light on economic news in the region.  Korea's KOSPI had closed in on 3,000 early in the trading day only for a complete turnaround and head lower, following the lead from elsewhere.  

• In China, the Hang Seng drifted marginally lower by -0.13% and remains down by -0.55% over the last five trading days.  The CSI 300 followed, down -0.15%, the Shanghai Composite down -0.19% and the Shenzhen Composite is down a mere --0.04% and is barely positive over the last five trading days.
• The KOSPI is down -0.34% in what was a complete turnaround having rallied early.  It remains one of the strongest in the region over the last five trading days up over 2%
• The FTSE Malay KLCI is down -0.39% following yesterday's modest gains.
• The Jakarta Composite is up by +0.70% taking back yesterday's losses of -0.68% to stem four consecutive days of losses.  
• The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore is up +0.28% whilst the PSEi in the Philippines has gained +0.53%
• The NIFTY 50 in India is down -0.36% given back from yesterday's gains of +0.92%