AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
- RES 1: 0.6585/6628 20-day EMA / High Sep 24
- PRICE: 0.6547 @ 19:06 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has breached support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6551. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 0.6527 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6628, the Sep 24 high.
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US TSYS: Late Buying on Late SF Fed Daly Recalibration Comment
- Treasuries are still mostly weaker after the bell - but swinging off late lows following late comments on LinkedIn from SF Fed Daly, that tariff-tied inflation is likely a one-off, that inflation/labor market are in tension, and lastly that "it will soon be time to recalibrate policy"
- Tsy Dec'25 10Y futures currently trades -.5 at 112-18.5 vs. 112-20.5 morning high, initial technical resistance above at 112-28.5 (2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing).
- Curves mildly steeper: 2s10s +3.597 at 60.622, 5s30s +4.177 122.498.
- US$ remains stable near modest lows (BBDXY -.39 at 1200.81.)
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Final PMIs After Further Improvement In Flash
- The Eurozone final PMI surveys for August are due for manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday.
- The flash PMIs were surprisingly robust as the composite increased to 51.1 for another 0.2pt improvement, up from the 50.4 averaged in 1H25 and its highest since May 2024.
- Drivers were mixed however, with manufacturing leading the monthly improvement to 50.5 whilst services cooled to 50.7 as the two closed what has been sizeable divergence.
- This week's final readings should confirm that countries other than Germany and France have still been outperforming but by less than previous months.
- Since the flash PMI release, the European Commission's economic confidence index was softer than expected in August as it shifted back close to levels averaged in 1H25 and is comfortably below its long-term average.
JGB TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat
- RES 3: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 2: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- RES 1: 139.05 High Aug 4
- PRICE: 137.56 @ 19:59 BST Aug 29
- SUP 1: 137.22 - Low Aug 26
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
A bear threat in JGBs futures remains present and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. The first important resistance to watch remains 141.48, the May 2 high. Clearance of this level would be viewed as a bullish signal. Initial short-term resistance is 139.05, the Aug 4 high. A breach would be a positive development for bulls.
