BUNDS: The Busiest Day of the Week is coming up
- A tight 12 ticks range for Bund ahead of the busiest day on the Data front for the Week.
- While very little is change in the contract, what immediately jumps out is the elevated Volume in the Bobl.
- It is still early to roll Eurex September positions into December, expiry is only on the 8th September, but of the ~13k lots traded Overnight in Sept Bobl, ~9.9k were spread related, helping explain why it is trading nearly 3 times the volume seen in Bund.
- The -66 print in the OEU5/Z5 was its lowest for this calendar spread, and the spread has been bought for -65.
- In terms of technical for Bund, these are unchanged, small support was seen at 129.50, it held to the tick Yesterday.
- Below the latter, sees 129.16 and 128.49 (2.80% Yield).
- Resistance is also unchanged, it comes at the 130.00 figure, although it did manage a 130.06 print on the 14th August.
- Today sees, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal prelim CPIs, German Regional/National CPIs, France, Italy, Portugal final GDPs, ECB CPI expectations, and on the other side of the Pond, US Core PCE, prelim Wholesales, MNI Chicago PMI, and final Michigan.
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BTP TECHS: (U5) Short-Term Reversal Signal
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 120.92 High Jul 24
- PRICE: 120.77@ Close Jul 29
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. A doji candle on Jul 25, and Monday’s gains, highlight a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.46, the Jul 22 high and 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.
GILT TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 92.74 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 92.42 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg
- RES 1: 91.82/92.15 20-day EMA / High Jul 22
- PRICE: 91.73 @ Close Jul 29
- SUP 1: 91.08 Low Jul 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 90.59 Low May 29
- SUP 4: 90.46 Low May 23
Gilt futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A rally on Jul 22 resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42, the 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 1.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Latest China Money Market Index Survey Published
MNI publishes the latest China Money Market Index survey of the Chinese money markets -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
