BUNDS: Testing initial support
Aug-21 12:19
* The German Bund is so far finding some support at the small level noted on the open at 129.00, i...
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EUROPEAN FISCAL: Ireland Budget Details
Jul-22 12:11
- "IRELAND TO INCREASE 2026-2030 CAPITAL BUDGET TO 112 BILLION EUROS FROM 91.3 BILLION EUROS, PM SAYS" - Reuters
- "IRELAND PLANS TO INTRODUCE 9.4 BLN EURO BUDGET PACKAGE FOR 2026 VS 10.5 BLN EURO BUDGET A YEAR AGO - FINANCE MINISTRY" Reuters
- "IRELAND BUDGET TO INCLUDE TAX PACKAGE OF €1.5 BILLION, SPENDING PACKAGE WILL BE €7.9 BILLION" Reuters
ECB: MNI ECB Preview: See You In September
Jul-22 12:10
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI ECB Preview, including MNI analysis plus analyst views on what to expect at this month's meeting.
- Please find the full report here: https://media.marketnews.com/ECB_Preview_Jul2025_8537216bb8.pdf
- The ECB is fully expected to leave its three key rates on hold on Thursday, with its deposit rate at 2.00%.
- ECB President Lagarde last month signalled that policy was in a good place after a cut to the mid-point of neutral estimates of 1.75-2.25%.
- There haven’t been any significant data surprises in the intervening period and some Governing Council members have talked of a higher bar to cut rates.
- That higher bar might be met with the recent renewed trade uncertainty following US President Trump threatening 30% tariffs on Aug 1, which if realised would be more severe than the scenarios presented with the June projections. The ECB base case assumed 10% tariffs and no EU retaliation.
- Of course, that later deadline date, pushed back from Jul 9, has further delayed the point at which the ECB might start to see some clarity on trade policy, further boosting the case for no action this week.
- We expect this week’s communication to be as non-committal as possible, maintaining flexibility and buying time for a fresh forecast round in time for the Sep 11 meeting.
- The balance of risks will be important in determining any market reaction. We expect any tweak to more clearly be shown in the balance of risks to economic growth, which have remained tilted to the downside.
- 24 of 29 analysts we review below expect a cut to follow in September, more dovish than the 11bp priced. The next and currently perceived final cut for the cycle isn’t priced until December.
- Along with tariff deliberations, expect questions in the press conference on EUR/USD strength after its climb prompted unusually explicit remarks from De Guindos on the sidelines of the Sintra conference.
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: GBP307.850mln of the 1.125% Sep-35 Linker sold
Jul-22 12:03
- GBP425mln had been on offer.
- This leaves GBP9,100.9mln of the gilt in issue
