BUNDS: Tariff Threats remain at the forefront

Jul-11 06:19

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* A wider Overnight traded session for Bund Overnight, so far a 25 ticks range for the contract. *...

Historical bullets

BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points North

Jun-11 06:14
  • RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
  • RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
  • RES 1: 121.37 High Jun 9 
  • PRICE: 121.19 @ Close Jun 10 
  • SUP 1: 120.24 20-day EMA      
  • SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
  • SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
  • SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

A bullish condition in BTP futures remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Resistance and a bull trigger at 119.70, the Apr 24 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.24 the 20-day EMA.

BOE: Saporta speech on monetary policy implementation due 7:30BST

Jun-11 06:13
  • The text of BOE ED of Markets Saporta’s speech will be published this morning at 7:30BST here and will cover monetary policy implementation.
  • As the TFLS and gilt portfolio continues to be wound down, demand for reserves has been stable around GBP700bln for around 3-months now despite some large gilt redemptions (including a large one over the past few days). Usage of the STR has continued to increase, and will continue to be watched in coming weeks ahead of the BOE’s decision on how much to wind down the APF over the October 2025 to September 2026 period (which will likely be made at the September MPC meeting).
  • The latest estimate in the April BOE Market Participants Survey was that the APF would be reduced in sized by GBP75bln (which would see active sales pick up versus this year but a smaller total reduction than this year’s GBP100bln).
  • We will be looking for any steer ahead of that and will also be looking to see whether Saporta sticks to the BOE’s central view that the Preferred Minimum Reserve Range (PMRR) is between GBP345-490bln (or GBP385-530bln as Mann said in a recent speech).

US TSY OPTIONS: TYN5 112.00 Calls Blocked

Jun-11 06:13

Latest block trade blocked at 06:44:02 London/01:44:02 NY:

  • TYN5 112.00 calls 8K blocked at 0-02, looks like a buyer, with another ~4.2K trading on screen on the follow.