BUNDS: /SWAPS: ASWs Soften On Reports Of Fiscal Agreement
Mar-14 11:10
Bund ASWs lead the move lower after local press reports point to fiscal agreement between the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens.
- Bunds vs. 3-month Euribor on track for a fresh cycle closing low, although the Buxl equivalent initially lags on the move, perhaps owing to liquidity/scope of the move already seen further out the curve.
- ASW vs. 3-month Euribor 1.1-1.7bp lower across the curve on the day.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Pivot Resistance In USDJPY
Feb-12 11:07
- In FX, a short-term bull theme in EURUSD remains intact for now. Attention is on the candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0427, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.
- GBPUSD found support Tuesday but for now, continues to trade below its Feb 5 high. Price recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.
- USDJPY is trading higher today as it extends the recovery from the Feb 7 low. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. A break would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. The key support and bear trigger is at 150.93, the Feb 7 low.
US: SOFR FIX - 12/02/25
Feb-12 11:05
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.31439 -0.00299
- 3M 4.31802 0.00298
- 6M 4.29233 0.00928
- 12M 4.24398 0.01958
EGB SYNDICATION: France new 30-year OAT: Launched
Feb-12 10:59
- Size: E8bln (MNI expected a E8-10bln size)
- Spread set at 3.25% May-55 OAT + 4bp (guidance: was 7bps area then revised to +5bps +/-1 WPIR)
- Books above E115bln (including E2.84bln JLM interest)
- Maturity: 25 May 2056
- Settlement: 19 February 2025 (T+5)
- Coupon: Fixed, annual ACT/ACT, payable each 25 May. Full first coupon on 25 May 2025
- Bookrunners: BNPP (DM and B&D) / Citi / DB / JPM / SG
- Books closed. Allocations and pricing later today
Details from market source
