SCHATZ: Swap related trade
May-16 07:20
Schatz Swap related trade, suggest receiver:
- DUM5 ~4.9k at 107.245.
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EGB SYNDICATION: Italy 7-year BTP / 30-year BTPei: Books open
Apr-16 07:20
7-year BTP:
- Guidance: 3.15% Nov-31 BTP +14bps area
- Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E7-13bln)
- Maturity: 15 July 2032
- ISIN: TBC
- Coupon: Short first on 15 July 2025
30-year BTPei:
- Guidance: 0.15% May-51 BTPei RY +38bps area
- Size: E3bln WNG
- Maturity: 15 July 2032
- ISIN: TBC
- Coupon: First full on 15 May
For both:
- Settlement: 25 April 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: BBVA / BofA / GSBE SE / JPM (DM/B&D) / Natixis / Societe Generale
- Timing: Books open, Today's business
From market source / MNI colour
US TSY FUTURES: FV/US Steepener Blocked
Apr-16 07:16
Latest block trade lodged at 07:53:36 London/02:53:36 NY:
- FVM5 8.2K lots blocked at 108-09+.
- USM5 2.8K lots blocked at 114-22.
- Subsequent price action on the 5s20s curve points to a steepener, DV01 ~$355K.
- 5s20s curve back towards cycle closing highs at 89.7bp, last 86.2bp.
Fig. 1: U.S. 5s20s Curve (bp)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
STIR: ECB Implied Rates Up To 2bps More Dovish On Renewed Risk Off
Apr-16 07:12
MNI’s ECB preview is here.
- What was originally seen as a close call after last month’s fifth consecutive cut is now seen as locked in, with 24bps priced in ECB-dated OIS, after the yet further escalation in global trade policies on the back of US tariffs.
- Last month saw “not just […] an innocuous little change” in the language describing its policy stance, with monetary policy “becoming meaningfully less restrictive” rather than a more static restrictive previously. Some look for a further change although we think that might be a step too far this month, with a hybrid approach including a nod to an increasingly neutral setting a viable alternative.
- OIS price 85bps of easing through year-end, 2bps more dovish than yesterday’s close with risk assets on the defensive. The US is attempting to restrict NVIDIA from selling its H20 chip to China, while President Trump also announced an investigation into the need for tariffs on critical minerals.
- Euribor futures are +1.0 to +4.5 ticks through the blues, with the greens/blues outperforming. ERZ5 is +1.5 ticks at 98.295, eyeing resistance at the April 7 and 9 highs of 98.335.
- Today’s regional data calendar includes final March HICP data and February balance of payments data.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Apr-25 | 2.175 | -24.1 |
| Jun-25 | 1.975 | -44.1 |
| Jul-25 | 1.850 | -56.6 |
| Sep-25 | 1.700 | -71.6 |
| Oct-25 | 1.642 | -77.4 |
| Dec-25 | 1.569 | -84.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.544 | -87.2 |
| Mar-26 | 1.535 | -88.1 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
