AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6538 High June 5
• PRICE: 0.6519 @ 16:06 BST Jun 9 
• SUP 1: 0.6452/6404 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

Trend signals in AUDUSD are unchanged, they are bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6404, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

SOFR & Treasury options remain mixed in the second half, volumes picking up in the wings. Underlying futures higher/off highs. Projected rate cut pricing retreats slightly vs. morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 steady at 0.0bp, Jul'25 at -3.6bp (-4.1bp), Sep'25 at -17.4bp (-17.9bp), Oct'25 at -29.6bp (-30.6bp), Dec'25 at -44.9bp (-45.9bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • Block, +6,250 0QV5 95.87/96.12/96.37 put trees, 4.5 ref 96.625 -- adds to:
  • +10,000 0QV5 95.87/96.12/96.37 put trees, 4.0 ref 96.625
  • +4,000 0QV5 95.75/96.12/96.37 broken put trees, 3.5
  • +6,000 0QM5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 3.0 vs. 96.46/0.25%
  • +20,000 SFRN5 97.37 calls, 0.5 ref 95.86
  • +4,000 SFRZ5 95.56/95.68/95.81 put flys, 2.5 ref 96.105
  • +10,000 0QU5 95.62/95.87 put spds, 1.5 ref 96.555
  • +8,000 SFRN5 95.87/96.00/96.12 call flys, 1.25-1.5
  • +2,500 SFRZ5 96.18/96.50/96.81 call flys, 3.5 vs. 96.12/0.20%
  • -4,000 SFRH6 95.62 put 0.5 over 96.25/96.62/97.00 call fly
  • +2,500 0QN5 97.62/98.25 call strip, .75
  • -7,500 0QZ5 97.25/97.50 call spds 0.5 over 96.37/96.62/96.87 call flys
  • -10,000 SFRH6 95.68 puts, 6.5 ref 96.29
  • -10,000 0QQ5 96.87 calls, 4.0 vs. 96.565/0.26%
  • Block, 4,800 SFRU5 95.75/95.87 put spds 8.0 ref 95.87
  • 9,000 SFRU5 95.81/95.93 call spds ref 95.865
  • 2,500 0QV5 96.00/96.25 put spds ref 96.61
  • 2,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50 call spds
  • 5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors ref 96.11
  • 1,000 SFRU5 95.68/95.87/96.00 broken put flys ref 95.865
  • 1,000 0QM5 96.37/96.50/96.75/97.00 broken call condors ref 96.475
  • +5,000 0QM5 96.43/96.56/96.68 1x3x2 call flys 1.5 vs. 96.425/0.05%
• Treasury Options:
  • +10,000 TYN5 108.5 puts, 3 vs. 110-04.5/0.05%
  • 1,250 TUQ5 103.75/104 2x3 call spds vs. 2,500 TUQ5 103.12 puts ref 103-15.88
  • 3,000 TYN5 109 puts, 8 ref 110-04
  • 5,500 Wed wkly TY 109.25/109.75 put spds ref 110-02.5 (exp 6/11)
  • +3,000 FVQ5 107.75/108.75 1x2 call spds 4.5 ref 107-21
  • Block, -10,000 FVN5 107 puts, 6 ref 107-19.5

Bloomberg reports: "US-China trade talks in London will continue tomorrow, according to a person familiar with the talks. Talks to resume at 10a in London" [0500ET].

• Today's meeting began just after 1pm local time (0800ET), though there were basically no headlines emerging from the talks themselves.
• Little market reaction to the news that talks would continue - an extension into Tuesday was seen as a distinct possibility.