BUNDS: Supply could again be in Focus Today
- A quieter Overnight session for Bund, just a 10 ticks range going into the Cash open, now 15 post open
The May's high in Yield provided the support in Futures, this will remain today. - Initial small resistance moves down to 129.78.
- Near term risk is still to the downside and towards 128.97, this was May's low for this expiry, but looking back at the June expiry (RXM5), May's low was at 129.19.
- US Trump said that he will push forward with his aggressive Tariffs, adding that he would not offer any extensions past the 1st August. Threatened to impose 50% on Copper coming into the US, and as high as 200% on Pharmaceuticals.
- Today is another very light day on the Data front, the only release will be the US Wholesales, but this will be the final reading.
- Some Desks will look Towards the FOMC minutes, but unlikely to be a market mover given that Tariff risks are the forefront.
- Focus will again likely be on Supply Today.
- SUPPLY: UK £4.5bn 2035 is heavy (equates to 38.8k Gilts) will weigh, Germany 15s, 20s (equates to 30.3k) could weigh into the bidding deadline, Portugal 2031, 2052 (won't impact Bund), US Sells $39bn of 10yr reopening.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lane, Guindos, Nagel.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BTP TECHS: (U5) Northbound
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 121.32 High Jun 5
- PRICE: 120.63 @ Close Jun 6
- SUP 1: 120.08 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and last Thursday’s pullback is for now considered corrective. Resistance and a bull trigger at 119.70, the Apr 24 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.12 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.08, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 93.05 1.382 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 92.79 1.236 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
- RES 1: 92.63 High Jun 5
- PRICE: 91.83 @ Close Jun 6
- SUP 1: 91.44 Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: 91.16/90.59 Low Jun 2 / Low May 29
- SUP 3: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 90.00 Round number support
Gilt futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. The latest rally undermines the recent bearish theme - a key short-term resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high, has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension higher and sights are on 92.79, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 91.44, the Jun 4 low. A break of this support is required to signal a possible reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Pierces An Important Resistance
- RES 4: 166.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 165.29 High May 13 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 164.98 @ 07:02 BST Jun 9
- SUP 1: 163.43 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 162.76 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26
- SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Friday’s gains resulted in a print above key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 166.10, the Nov 6 2024 high. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction.
