BUNDS: Supply could again be in Focus Today

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 121.32 High Jun 5 
• PRICE: 120.63 @ Close Jun 6 
• SUP 1: 120.08 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and last Thursday’s pullback is for now considered corrective. Resistance and a bull trigger at 119.70, the Apr 24 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.12 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.08, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 93.05 1.382 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 92.79 1.236 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 92.63 High Jun 5  
• PRICE: 91.83 @ Close Jun 6
• SUP 1: 91.44 Low Jun 4 
• SUP 2: 91.16/90.59 Low Jun 2 / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 4: 90.00 Round number support        

Gilt futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. The latest rally undermines the recent bearish theme - a key short-term resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high, has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension higher and sights are on 92.79, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 91.44, the Jun 4 low. A break of this support is required to signal a possible reversal.

• RES 4: 166.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6 ‘24         
• RES 1: 165.29 High May 13 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 164.98 @ 07:02 BST Jun 9 
• SUP 1: 163.43 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 162.76 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Friday’s gains resulted in a print above key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 166.10, the Nov 6 2024 high. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction.