EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Suedzucker; Issues Correction
(SZUGR; Baa3/BBB-/NR)
It has now issued a correction to yesterday's trading update. The 'significant improvement' is vs. Q3 last year not Q2 (i.e. y/y growth not q/q). This still leaves us seeing no value add information: FY guidance is implying 2H EBITDA of €281-381m, EBIT €58-158m. Growth over 3Q last year is a low bar.
"After a positive start to the third quarter of financial year 2025/26 (1 September to 30 November 2025), Südzucker AG expects a significant improvement in both EBITDA and operating profit for the full quarter compared to the prior-year period (Q3 2024/25: EBITDA: EUR 82 million; operating result: EUR -33 million)."
- FY guidance is still left unch
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STIR: EUR STIRs Favour A 2% Terminal Rate
ECB-dated OIS continue to just about lean in favour of a 2% terminal rate, with 11.5bps of easing priced through June 2026. Last week’s ECB decision saw the bar to another cut pushed a little higher, with the outlook now considered to be “more balanced” and the Governing Council not willing to react to “small deviations” from the updated inflation projections. The case for any further cuts will need to be motivated by incoming data.
- Focus in the days since the September decision has been on ECBspeak. The most vocal Governing Council member has been new Austrian National Bank Governor Kocher.
- Overall, his comments have been fairly pragmatic, supporting a steady path for rates for now, but keeping the door open to fine tuning if justified by the data.
- Elsewhere, the usually hawkish Nagel told Faz on Friday evening that further cuts could threaten price stability.
- Euribor futures are +0.5 to +1.0 ticks through the blues.
- Limited reaction in EUR STIRs to France’s (generally expected) downgrade from Fitch on Friday. More on that to follow.
- Today’s regional calendar includes the ECB’s latest Survey of Monetary Analysts and July trade balance data. ECB’s Schnabel and Lagarde are also set to speak.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Oct-25 | 1.918 | -0.7 |
| Dec-25 | 1.881 | -4.4 |
| Feb-26 | 1.865 | -6.0 |
| Mar-26 | 1.823 | -10.2 |
| Apr-26 | 1.818 | -10.7 |
| Jun-26 | 1.810 | -11.5 |
| Jul-26 | 1.811 | -11.4 |
| Sep-26 | 1.825 | -10.1 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3890 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 1.3839 @ 08:03 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 1.3790/27 50-day EMA / Low Aug 27 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
Despite last Thursday’s pullback, a bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. The recovery from the Aug 29 low highlights a reversal signal and if correct, marks the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 22 - 29. A continuation higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high. Support lies at 1.3727, the Aug 29 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a short-term bear theme and expose 1.3709 initially, a Fibonacci retracement.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6729 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6677 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6669 High Sep 12
- PRICE: 0.6659 @ 08:00 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 0.6558/6526 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat despite. Last week’s gains plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6526, the 50-day EMA.
